“Polar winds typically blow at 200 km/hour, but they have recently diminished to 100. Sept 2025 high air temperatures were noted at an altitude of 30 km over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. This sudden stratospheric warming leads to significant changes in weather patterns especially in the Southeast as summer approaches, akin to previous occurrences that have resulted in hotter and drier conditions in this region.”
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WATCH Music, Film, TV & Pop Culture Hub channel report Could Antarctic Stratospheric Warming Spark a Summer Heatwave in South-East Australia?
Transcript- Australia's southeast may soon
0:02
experience unusually high temperatures,
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a phenomenon triggered by a rare surge
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in stratospheric temperatures over
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Antarctica. This sudden stratospheric
0:12
warming could lead to significant
0:14
changes in weather patterns as summer
0:16
approaches, akin to previous occurrences
0:19
that have resulted in hotter and drier
0:21
conditions in this region. Now, you
0:24
might be wondering what sudden
0:26
stratospheric warming entails. It's a
0:28
rare fluctuation in the atmosphere,
0:31
especially in the southern hemisphere,
0:33
having only been noted in 2002 and 2019.
0:38
The latter event was particularly
0:40
impactful, contributing to the severity
0:42
of the devastating Black Summer
0:44
bushfires that year. In early September
0:47
this year, an unusual increase in air
0:50
temperatures was noted at an altitude of
0:52
around 30 km over the southern ocean and
0:55
Antarctica.
0:57
These temperatures have now reached a
0:59
staggering 30° C warmer than the
1:02
average. Dr. Martin Jucker, who
1:05
specializes in atmospheric science at
1:07
the University of New South Wales,
1:09
highlighted that while normal conditions
1:11
hover around -50° C, the current
1:15
temperature stands at about -20°,
1:19
which while still chilly, signifies a
1:22
significant anomaly. Accompanying this
1:24
warming trend is a slowdown in the polar
1:27
vortex. Powerful cold winds high above
1:30
the Earth's polar regions. These winds
1:33
typically blow at around 200 km hour,
1:36
but they have recently diminished to
1:38
around 100 km hour. This shift is
1:43
expected to promote warmer and drier
1:45
weather conditions on the ground,
1:47
especially impacting New South Wales and
1:50
Victoria. However, the precise
1:53
consequences of the situation remain
1:55
uncertain as the Bureau of Meteorology
1:57
anticipates wetter weather in some
2:00
forecasts. Dr. Jucker noted this
2:02
complexity. There's a balancing act
2:04
between the exceptionally warm ocean
2:06
temperatures which could lead to wet
2:08
conditions for us and the warming in the
2:10
stratosphere which might produce drier
2:13
weather. The question is which factor
2:15
will dominate? Unfortunately, that
2:18
remains an open question. Past instances
2:21
of stratospheric warming have had the
2:24
most pronounced effects on New South
2:26
Wales in southern Queensland, typically
2:28
resulting in warmer spring temperatures
2:30
accompanied by reduced rainfall. Ben
2:33
Domincino from Weather Zone elaborated
2:35
that this sudden warming could
2:37
potentially influence a climate driver
2:39
known as the southern annular mode,
2:41
increasing the likelihood of
2:43
particularly hot days in southern
2:45
Australia, while also making drier
2:47
conditions over eastern Australia seem
2:49
more realistic. Interestingly, while
2:52
such sudden stratospheric warming events
2:54
are rare in the southern hemisphere,
2:56
they are a more frequent phenomenon in
2:58
the northern hemisphere, occurring
3:00
approximately six times each decade. On
3:03
a brighter note, Dr. Jucker pointed out
3:05
a potential silver lining from this
3:07
stratospheric warming. As temperatures
3:10
surpass the threshold that leads to
3:12
ozone destruction, there may be a
3:15
reduction in the size of the ozone hole.
3:18
But here's where it gets controversial.
3:20
Will the consequences of these warming
3:22
events ultimately prove disastrous for
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Australia's climate? Or could there be
3:27
unforeseen benefits? As we explore these
3:30
impacts, it's crucial to consider how
3:33
such natural phenomena can create a
3:35
complex interplay between weather
3:37
patterns. What are your thoughts? Do you
3:40
believe the risks outweigh the benefits,
3:42
or is there hope for positive change in
3:44
the climate landscape? Share your
3:46
opinions in the comments.
***
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