PB: Think of the Gulf Stream. It moves to the north, to the east, over to Europe, brings a lot of warmth to Europe.
***
As polar glaciers thaw, gas that was sequestered in permafrost for thousands of years is leaking out at increasing rates, emitting Carbon Dioxide, Methane and Nitrous Oxide, the two latter being far more potent than CO2. A major Atlantic ocean current, the AMOC, is slowing down. If it shuts down, it will radically disrupt climate systems. Paul Beckwith and Peter Wadhams discuss the situation in the Arctic and in Antarctica with host, Dale Walkonen WATCH: Peril at the Poles- Facing Future channel Oct 3 report, transcript below:
.
PB: The warming greatly depends on the latitude. Closer you go to the Pole, the faster the warming, called Arctic temperature amplification. Ocean current slowdown is being attributed to the great warming.
PW: Recently, 3:26 we had even more of an impact, the explosions where large concentrations of methane were being emitted in an explosive way, leaving big holes behind. them where people wondered where those holes came from. All of this is unexpected and a function of emissions, which we don't know quite why they're so violently emitted. One of the problems today is the larger quantity of methane that's being emitted.
Transcripts here for readers writers and researchers
TRANSCRIPT: You can't easily model the way in which
0:03
the climate is going to be changing
0:06
during the next few years. And uh that
0:09
gives one a definite sense of
0:11
instability,
0:13
a sense of um not knowing what's coming.
0:16
Is it going to be some extreme heating
0:19
or cooling? Or is it going to be some
0:22
range of climate disasters? We just
0:25
don't know.
0:43
Welcome to facing future. I'm Dale
0:45
Walinan. With me today are Paul
0:48
Beckwith, climate scientist, and
0:51
professor Peter Watams, former head of
0:53
ocean physics at Cambridge University.
0:56
Um, today we're going to discuss all
0:58
matters Arctic and and climate. The
1:01
Arctic is at the forefront of the
1:03
climate crisis and its glaciers are
1:04
melting fast. Will there be an abrupt
1:07
thaw that suddenly triggers a tipping
1:10
point that threatens all life on Earth?
1:12
And is there anything we can do in the
1:14
climate crisis in general to mitigate
1:17
these effects or are we really facing a
1:19
catastrophe in the near future? Thank
1:22
you both for being here. Uh, wonderful
1:24
members of our team. Um Paul, would you
1:27
like to start?
1:28
Actually, I'd like to pass it over to
1:30
Peter because um I'm I'm very curious to
1:33
hear specifically about the Arctic
1:36
perafrost thaw. Um we're getting less
1:39
snow cover over the land in in certainly
1:42
in in spring, which means that the
1:45
Arctic is a much darker place. The it's
1:48
not reflecting as much sunlight. It's
1:50
absorbing a lot more with less sea ice
1:52
and less snow cover. And there's always
1:55
a concern about methane coming up in
1:58
large quantities to tip the climate
2:01
over. So let's I think starting with
2:04
Arctic perafrost and methane is a is a
2:06
good place. So So Peter,
2:10
great Peter.
2:12
Well, the uh the main problem with
2:15
Arctic methane is that there's so much
2:17
of it and it's just it's just
2:20
proliferating.
2:21
When um I started working on methane a
2:25
long while ago, it was something that
2:28
was a mild phenomenon that didn't seem
2:31
to mean too much. Then a lot of
2:35
intensive work was done on it by a group
2:38
from Russia and they were starting to
2:41
look at methane in places where it
2:44
wasn't expected to be that is uh in
2:48
mountains along the edges of ice sheets.
2:52
Suddenly methane was everywhere and now
2:55
we actually can see methane properly. We
3:00
can look at where it's coming from. It
3:02
seems to be being emitted pretty much
3:05
everywhere in the Arctic and this
3:08
methane is a very very climatically
3:11
active gas and so it doesn't help the
3:15
world if you uh have a large quantity of
3:19
the gas being emitted. So we really have
3:23
to worry about that. And then recently,
3:26
of course, we had even more of an
3:28
impact, which was the explosions
3:31
occurring where large concentrations of
3:34
methane were just uh being emitted in an
3:38
explosive way, leaving big holes behind
3:41
them where people wondered where those
3:44
holes came from. All of this is is
3:47
something which is unexpected
3:50
and is a a function of emissions which
3:55
we don't know quite why they're so
3:57
violently emitted. And uh one of the
4:01
problems today is the larger quantity of
4:05
methane that's being emitted. And we
4:08
wonder where that's coming from and what
4:11
it's doing. Well, of course, there are
4:13
many sources of methane uh methane uh
4:17
you wetlands of all kinds uh cowps
4:21
and uh are our own industries and so
4:24
forth. Um and we don't need any more of
4:26
it. There's also nitrous oxide that I
4:29
believe is emitted which is another
4:30
major problem from farmland and from
4:33
from perafrost.
4:35
And of course there's the Antarctic
4:37
which is the other question mark that we
4:40
have. Um Paul, I wonder what you have to
4:43
say about what's going on in Antarctica.
4:45
I think there's some new news from that
4:47
uh part of the world.
4:49
We've often thought that um climate is
4:52
changing everywhere on the planet
4:54
rapidly, but Antarctic's pretty pretty
4:57
uh solid place. Not much happening
4:59
there. It's very very cold continent.
5:02
80% of the global population lives in
5:04
the northern hemisphere. So, it's just
5:07
the Aussies and the Kiwis down in
5:09
Australia and New Zealand,
5:11
South Americans, and so on. But we're
5:14
seeing massive changes, abrupt changes
5:18
in Antarctica
5:19
in terms of sea ice loss specifically.
5:23
So, Antarctic sea ice was increasing
5:26
about 1 and a.5% per decade from the 70s
5:29
onward. And then suddenly something
5:32
seemed to break in the system around
5:34
2014 2015 and the sea ice area and
5:39
extent and concentration started
5:41
dropping off a cliff. Not just in the
5:44
Antarctic summer but also in the
5:45
Antarctic winter. And since 2015, the
5:50
loss of sea ice around Antarctica has
5:53
even exceeded the loss of sea ice in the
5:58
Arctic since the uh '7s. So it's
6:02
happening very very quickly. So I guess
6:04
the question the main questions are why?
6:06
Because when you lose a lot of sea ice,
6:07
you have to worry about how the ocean
6:10
circulation patterns change. So the sea
6:12
ice loss
6:13
and the warming in the Arctic, which
6:15
many people, at least mainstream science
6:18
now says the Arctic's warming four times
6:21
faster than the global average. What's
6:24
happening in reality is the warming
6:26
greatly depends on the latitude. The
6:29
closer you go to the pole, the warmer
6:30
the faster the warming. It's called
6:33
Arctic amplification. I prefer the term
6:35
Arctic temperature amplification.
6:37
But Antarctic has come up and surprised
6:40
us. So the ocean currents, the AOK has
6:42
slowed down. That's being attributed to
6:45
the great warming and fresh water
6:47
entering the Arctic region from melt and
6:50
uh reducing the strength of the AOCH.
6:53
But also but the Smok has slowed down
6:56
significantly as well, which surprises a
6:58
lot of people because many people sort
7:00
of assume that with the AMO slowing down
7:02
the Smok would increase to compensate,
7:05
but we're not seeing that happen right
7:06
now. Also, I think people need to
7:09
remember the sea ice in Antarctica is
7:11
much much further from the pole than it
7:14
is in the Arctic. So, when we lose that
7:16
sea ice around Antarctica, the radiative
7:19
effects, the albido effects become that
7:22
much more important because there's a
7:24
lot more sunlight when you're away from
7:26
the pole than it is right at the pole.
7:29
So, we're seeing massive changes to the
7:32
the overall climate system. I mean,
7:35
climate change is definitely
7:36
accelerating.
7:38
The radiative forcing is much higher. We
7:41
seem to be having fewer clouds, which
7:44
means that more sunlight is hitting the
7:46
Earth. Albido of the Earth is the Earth
7:48
literally is becoming a darker place,
7:50
right? It's darker. It doesn't it
7:52
absorbs more sunlight and and
7:54
well, some of the clouds are beneficial
7:56
to us and some types of clouds, the
7:58
higher clouds
7:59
actually are detrimental. So, it depends
8:02
on the cloud.
8:02
We're losing the beneficial ones.
8:04
Unfortunately, the the
8:06
Yeah.
8:07
And and Peter, you've often talked about
8:09
the blue ocean event in the Arctic. Um
8:13
do you see that coming upon us?
8:16
Um well, not as not as quickly as I
8:19
previously thought. A blue ocean event
8:21
would be just when all the sea ice goes,
8:25
bringing a large amount of open water
8:28
from the melting of the ice and the
8:31
result would be pretty catastrophic.
8:33
except that it's not happening. It's not
8:36
happening to that extent. And also um
8:40
something that sort of strange is the
8:43
fact that the massive amounts of
8:45
additional water coming into the ocean
8:48
from melting sea ice is not causing sea
8:51
level to rise as quickly as one
8:54
expected. Given the production that's
8:57
going on, I would have expected us to be
9:01
experiencing a greater rate of sea level
9:04
rise than we're actually seeing. So, it
9:07
was a interesting question is where's
9:10
all that water coming from?
9:12
Well, we've of course between the two
9:15
poles is the Amok. If that collapses, it
9:19
would warm the Arctic. And what would
9:22
happen in Antarctica? No, if it would if
9:25
if think of the Gulf Stream,
9:27
it would cool the Arctic.
9:28
Sorry. Right.
9:29
Think of the Gulf Stream. So, if it
9:31
moves to the north, to the east, moves
9:33
over to Europe, Northern Europe. It
9:36
brings a lot of warmth to Europe, right,
9:39
in the waters, and then it turns and
9:41
goes into the Arctic. And when sea ice
9:44
is being formed, it rejects about half
9:47
of the salt. Then the other half is in
9:50
brine pockets within the ice which
9:52
eventually then drains out. But it takes
9:54
several years to do that making the ice
9:56
sort of pure and pure just water and and
9:59
less brine pockets inside. But the water
10:02
left over when the ice is forming on the
10:05
fringes is um very salty and it's also
10:08
cold. So it's heavy. So it sinks down to
10:11
the ocean floor. And uh that happens at
10:14
both poles. And that overturning
10:16
circulation is crucial for the climate
10:19
system because the water at the surface
10:22
is oxygenated
10:24
and it's got a lot of carbon carbon in
10:28
it. CO2 dissolved CO2 in it. Carbonic
10:31
acid creating the ocean acidification.
10:34
But when the water descends down to the
10:36
deep, it takes the carbon down and it
10:39
takes oxygen down. Both of which are
10:42
important. The carbon going down means
10:44
that the oceans are carbon sink. About
10:46
half of human emissions,
10:49
about half of anthropogenic emissions
10:52
are absorbed in the ocean very quickly
10:55
and by this process taken down to the
10:58
deep ocean floor. So with less vertical
11:00
mixing in a more stratified ocean, you
11:03
get less oxygen at the bottom, which is
11:05
very detrimental to marine life that
11:08
lives on the bottom. It's also very
11:10
detrimental to us because the oceans are
11:13
no longer such a powerful carbon sink.
11:15
The ocean overturning is is pretty vital
11:19
for our present day existence on this
11:22
planet. When it stops happening, then
11:26
everything changes. it becomes much more
11:28
difficult to grow food. I would imagine
11:31
um it feeds into the atmospheric wind
11:33
circulation patterns. You know, you have
11:35
to look at sort of the earth as a heat
11:37
engine. The equator is hot, the poles
11:39
are cold. Heat wants to move from the
11:42
equator to the poles. It does so in the
11:44
ocean currents. It does it also in the
11:46
atmospheric wind patterns. And then when
11:49
the whole system is working as a finely
11:52
oiled machine if you like the climate
11:55
system then you know we have climate
11:57
stability but we're losing that climate
12:00
stability and it becomes much more of a
12:03
chaotic nonlinear system. So we you
12:06
we're really we don't really know what's
12:08
going to happen but we do know that in
12:10
the past the AOCH has collapsed and we
12:14
know that certain changes occurred on
12:16
the earth and we do know that when
12:18
carbon reached a certain level certain
12:20
changes are clear in the geology. So it
12:23
isn't a blind game entirely but there is
12:26
so much it's so complex that it's it's
12:30
hard to say what will happen when. Uh,
12:33
Peter, how do you feel about what's
12:36
going on and how's this affecting you as
12:38
you've been working on this for so many
12:40
years?
12:41
Well, yes. Um, well, it's it's very it's
12:46
very worrying because the mechanisms
12:49
that Paul has discussed are liable to
12:52
give us streams of weather that we don't
12:55
expect and might be really extreme and
12:59
be unexpected as well.
13:02
We can't easily model the way in which
13:05
the climate is going to be changing
13:07
during the next few years. And uh that
13:11
gives one a definite sense of
13:13
instability,
13:15
a sense of um not knowing what's coming.
13:18
Is it going to be some extreme heating
13:21
or cooling? Or is it going to be some
13:24
range of climate disasters? We just
13:27
don't know. And we haven't been in that
13:30
position for a long time. We've been
13:33
able to predict more or less how things
13:36
are going to change and now we can't. So
13:39
I'm very worried about that.
13:42
Uncertainty is always very disturbing.
13:44
I'm surprised that you're as uncertain
13:47
as I am uh being more informed. But um I
13:52
think we all are in a state of of um
13:55
uncertainty and now we have this insane
13:56
administration in America which is
13:58
making us all extremely worried because
14:02
they're they don't seem to have any
14:04
understanding whatsoever and are not
14:06
even the US is not even attending the
14:08
climate talks in November. So um in
14:11
America it's a kind of a dark time and
14:14
I'm sure you're both grateful not to be
14:16
here.
14:18
Um anyway um thank you both uh for this
14:22
discussion. We we covered a lot of
14:24
topics and um I it's I really appreciate
14:28
you're you're both participating in
14:30
facing future.
14:32
Thank you D.r
14:44
Oh yeah.
14:59
***
Peter Wadhams ScD is emeritus[1] professor of Ocean Physics, and Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge. He is best known for his work on sea ice.Facing Future
Peter Beckwith Physicist, Engineer, and professor at the University of Ottawa
***
FacingFuture.TV hosted by Dale Walkonen and founded by Stuart Scott, gives voice to scientists & climate activists, historians & futurists, economists & philosophers.
He
No comments:
Post a Comment