TRANSCRIPT: 0:13 [Music] 0:18 This study looked at the the fire 0:20 conducive weather conditions uh in the 0:22 weeks leading up to the the outbreak of 0:24 these massive wildfires across the 0:26 Iberian Peninsula. So, we know that it's 0:28 been very hot in this area across the 0:30 whole of Spain and Portugal for the 0:32 summer, but in particular, AET have said 0:34 that this coincided with the hottest 0:36 10-day period or the most intense 10-day 0:38 heat wave uh that Spain has ever seen 0:41 and also the longest period of heatwave 0:43 conditions, which was 16 days of 0:44 heatwave conditions. 0:47 [Music] 0:54 [Music] 1:01 [Music] 1:03 And those really high temperatures are 1:05 really what's driven these fires. 1:06 They've dried out the vegetation and 1:08 they've made it um really kind of 1:10 tinderbox conditions for these wildfires 1:12 to take hold. 1:18 [Music] 1:31 [Music] 1:36 And what our study has found is actually 1:38 these kind of temperatures and these 1:40 kind of fire weather conditions are not 1:42 that unusual in the current climate. Um 1:45 we would expect to see similar 1:47 conditions uh similar fire weather 1:49 conditions maybe once every 15 years at 1:51 the moment. Um but without climate 1:53 change, without humancaused climate 1:55 change, these conditions would have been 1:57 really unusual. 2:02 [Music] 2:09 [Music] 2:19 combined fire conditions, including the 2:22 low rainfall, um the high temperatures, 2:24 the low humidity, and the wind. We use a 2:27 kind of compound index that captures all 2:29 of those factors over the last couple of 2:32 months and weeks and days. That's what 2:34 this daily severity rating is. 2:39 Those 2:43 [Music] 2:56 levels of fire severity that we're 2:58 seeing are now about 40 times more 3:00 likely than they would have been without 3:02 humancaused climate change. But the high 3:04 temperatures that we're seeing are 3:07 actually more unusual. uh or sorry 3:09 they're not more unusual. They've been 3:11 uh made much more likely by climate 3:12 change. So the temperatures are also I 3:15 think we found about a one in 13year 3:16 event but without climate change they 3:19 would have been really really rare to be 3:20 that hot for 10 days in a row would have 3:23 been maybe 200 times less likely in a 3:27 pre-industrial climate without 3:28 human-caused warming. 3:34 [Music] 3:47 [Music]
STUDY:
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