"Global warming is accelerating faster than what mainstream climate science had thought just a couple of years ago ... expect a lot more warming faster than what we've been told ... 2° by 2100 target from Paris Accord, we're going to actually hit that in the 2030s" READ & WATCH: Climate Chat Feb 15 live stream w first 10-mins transcribed-TRANSCRIPT of first 10 mins: And welcome to climate chat. I am your host Dan Miller and I'm here with my co-host Leon Simons. Welcome Leon hi hi Dan. So today we're going to be talking about a recent communication from climate scientist- world renowned climate scientist James Hansen; and Jim came up with this recent communication called another El Nino already what can we learn from it.
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Published the 6th of February 2026. Link to Hansen article: https://mailchi.mp/caa/another-el-nino-already-what-can-we-learn-from-it?e=a29768a646
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and that's important- that it's expected not confirmed but an expected upcoming El Nino condition will provide kind of an experiment to see whether Jim's temperature predictions are correct I should note by the way for those who don't know Jim Hansen and many other climate scientists on a paper now a few years ago called global warming in the pipeline where they kind of laid out the basics for what we're talking about today and what are we talking about
Today we're talking about the fact that it appears that global warming is accelerating faster than what mainstream climate science had thought just a couple of years ago like and when we say mainstream climate science that's like the intergovernmental panel on climate change the ipcc for example; which is a group of thousands of climate scientists that review climate research and public reports every few years.
2.20
So if what Jim is saying is correct- and it appears that he is- then we should expect a lot more global warming faster than what we've been told and in particular something that will focus on today a little bit is that there's this 2° target that the Paris Accord said we should stay well below 2 degrees Celsius of global warming; and still predictions were that around the 2050s that we would get close to the two degree Target.
However if what Jim and Leon and others are saying is correct, we're going to actually hit that in the 2030s and we're going to take a look specifically based on recent temperature data where we are on that Trend.
But in the paper Jim goes through the the reasoning and thinking behind what was happening here and how we why this upcoming El Niño is a is a good way to see if he's right or or maybe the mainstream of people People are right that maybe it isn't going to be so bad.
This is important definitely for informed climate policy of which there is almost none at this point but Obviously if things are getting worse faster than we thought that will get at least some governments maybe not all governments but some governments to act with more urgency so that's that's the background.
4.20
We should maybe start with this slide which is the first figure of the most recent communication and this is simply temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius from basically pre-industrial times which I think is this is 1880 1920
[Editor's note: Leon speaks but has a thick accent and I'm capturing this transcript with voice typing so I'm unable to capture what he says.]
The chart is based on the NASA giss data set…
6.0
those greenhouse gases would already be okay- it's not how much you put out this year it's how much you put out in total because it lasts in the atmosphere for hundreds of thousands of years so that warming from CO2 is a cumulative process. so it's the total amount that does the warming…
7.07
On the chart this is actually 1950 and still not Rising very rapidly and that's because even though CO2 was accumulating at the same time we were industrializing men more and more pollution from plants and everything and ships and everything and so the net warming didn't really start to occur until about 1970 when the US passed the Clean Air Act and started to control some of that pollution and then other countries did the similar thing and that's when climate change started global warming started rising at a relatively steady pace; and then the question is will that pace continue forever you know and that's what kind of was assumed for a long time.
but as Jim's going to point out in his thing about 2015 something happened and there seems to be a new trajectory and you can even argue that recent data is implying that this direction could be even higher but if you follow the increase trajectory you see that it hits the two degree the top of this graph is two degrees it hits the top of the graph and around 2037 so and that's just…
9.20
This sounds theoretical, this sounds sounds like we're talking about- I don't know- atmospheric stuff whatever; this is your life this is your children's life this is the world's life this is this is this is going to have severe impacts on all of us not in some far off distant future but-
first of all it's definitely happening so that's there's that and that's happening at one and a half degrees but we're on our way to 2° and and it's not like 2° is only a 25% worse than 1.5 it doesn't work like that.
10.0 in video: This is the paper.-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcPwmfDf5qU&t=629s
[KE: Click there to watch the rest of the climate chat video, which is more than 1.5 hours long. They go into detail on the Hansen et al paper, and my hands can't keep this up any longer; plus the ambient noise is starting in the neighborhood so I won't be able to capture voice from one laptop with another laptop until tomorrow morning. Onward]
[KE: Everything scientists predicted about global warming/ climate change since the 1970s is coming true, only faster]
