Part 2 Himalayan flood videos
TRANSCRIPT by AI:
"Hello everybody. 0:05 My name is Beckwith, 0:07 Paul Beckwith. 0:09 About a week ago, there were a number of 0:11 different news articles from various 0:13 meteorologists in different countries 0:16 asking the question, did the southwest 0:19 monsoon moisture actually cross the 0:22 Himalayas and reach the Tibetan plateau 0:25 um just uh you know, a week or two ago? 0:29 So the monsoon in India has been ex very 0:32 very powerful this year. Very intense 0:35 started early still ongoing. Um and it 0:40 normally is at lower levels in the in 0:44 the atmosphere. So you know it's 0:46 normally between about 1,600700 0:49 m up to 2,000 mters maybe. But this year 0:53 there were some exceptional weather 0:55 conditions, you know, with jet streams 0:58 and atmospheric rivers and things that 1:00 seemed to drive the monsoon 1:04 moisture to higher and higher levels. 1:06 And in fact, parts of it seemed to cross 1:09 the Himalayas and reach the, you know, 1:12 parts of the Tibetan plateau just a few 1:14 weeks ago. And if this is the case, it's 1:16 unprecedented. 1:18 So, I want to look at some of the um I 1:22 did a little bit of investigation and 1:24 I'll I wanted to uh let you know some of 1:26 the things that I've come up with. 1:30 Okay. So, yes, the monsoon winds did 1:33 seem to cross the mountains into Tibet 1:36 in early September 2025. 1:39 So this is from what we can see an 1:42 unprecedented event and it's being 1:45 attributed to shifting climate dynamics 1:48 and it's being confirmed by multiple 1:50 weather and climate sources. Okay, so 1:53 that's the first thing. 1:56 Second thing, climate scientists and 1:58 glaciologists analyzing satellite data 2:02 have confirmed that the southwest 2:04 monsoon. So it's from the southwest 2:07 moving up towards the northeast. It's 2:10 traditionally blocked by the Himalayas, 2:13 right? The mountains are just too high. 2:15 It blocks it, creates a barrier. But 2:18 that barrier seemed to be breached. So 2:21 moisture was carried up to very high 2:23 altitude into Tibet during the first 2:26 week of September of this year. This is 2:29 the first recorded instance where the 2:32 monsoons moisture penetrated into Tibet 2:36 apparently. Um needs more investigation 2:39 to see if that's actually true. Um, but 2:42 it's very raw, very dry in the 2:44 mountains, high in the mountains because 2:46 the moisture precipitates out before it 2:48 reaches the high elevations. 2:51 So, this event that happened just a 2:53 couple weeks ago, it's been called 2:55 extraordinary, potentially significant 2:58 for future regional water security and 3:00 weather patterns. So, what actually 3:03 happened? Um, apparently there was a 3:06 series of so-called western disturbances 3:10 that interacted with the monsoon winds 3:13 and that drove the moist air to very 3:15 very high altitudes, allowed moisture to 3:18 cross the the mountains into Tibet. And 3:23 most of the information we have on this 3:25 event happening is from satellite 3:27 images. They show a clear migration of 3:30 the moisture from over Hamashial 3:33 Pradesh, 3:35 Utaric Kahand and Leiddaka, into the 3:39 Tibetan plateau. 3:41 And there's a there's a region called 3:43 Zanscar, Zan S. 3:47 It's close to the divide of the 3:50 mountains. They got over 100 millimeters 3:52 of rain and even unseasonable snowfall 3:56 during this event just from a couple 3:58 weeks ago. Okay. So, this event's viewed 4:01 as a direct consequence of climate 4:03 change affecting South Asian weather 4:06 systems which there's been an increase 4:09 in variability and intensity of these of 4:12 hydro meteorological events, water, 4:15 weather events. 4:18 local populations in Tibet and 4:20 surrounding regions saw unusual 4:22 precipitation levels and humidity. 4:24 Right? Normally it's very typically very 4:26 very dry in September, but they didn't 4:29 get that this year. So this is a very 4:32 significant and important anomaly 4:36 um which is going to need a lot of 4:38 study. So it's basically a convergence 4:41 of unusual factors, unusual weather 4:44 factors that are not aren't normally 4:46 seen in the region. So the key thing is 4:48 first of all the monsoon's been pretty 4:51 intense in India. You know very very 4:54 intense long duration huge amounts of 4:56 rainfall. I'll talk about some of the 4:58 details to follow in this video but the 5:02 there's been a record number of these 5:04 so-called western disturbances. There's 5:06 been 19 western disturbances during the 5:09 southwest monsoon season. Normally 5:12 there's about four to six. So we've got 5:14 at least uh you know maybe five three to 5:17 five times more uh disturbances 5:21 um than than normal. So the dynamics 5:25 there's powerful dynamics going on in 5:27 the atmosphere above India and these are 5:30 directly affected 5:33 um and interact directly with the 5:35 monsoon winds the moist monsoon winds. 5:38 So the monsoon winds have been very 5:40 strong and there's been very intense 5:43 uplift. So these disturbances 5:46 being dragged along by the monsoon that 5:49 increases the vertical transport of air 5:51 when they're pushed against the 5:52 mountains. So the moisture laden winds 5:56 went to altitudes. It just says you know 5:59 over 2,000 meters. But in order to reach 6:02 um you know through further in it would 6:04 have to go through valleys mountain 6:06 valleys and things and reach you know 6:08 3,000 4,000 plus meters in order to in 6:12 order to be seen over the regions where 6:14 this where the snow and precipitation 6:16 occurred. The normal monsoon height is 6:19 around 1,600 to700 meters. So we went 6:23 much higher than that and we've breached 6:25 the Himalayan barrier. 6:28 the there's been a lot of atmospheric 6:31 heating and expansion temperatures well 6:33 above norms in India much more 6:37 convective uplift bringing things to 6:39 higher bringing moisture to higher 6:40 altitudes the collision of the western 6:43 disturbances with the strong monsunal 6:46 advection that's horizontal movement of 6:48 air led to warming uplift and expansion 6:51 of the moist air so it created clouds 6:54 and moisture which spilled over over 6:56 gaps in the mountains As seen from 6:58 satellite um monitoring, 7:02 there's a possible involvement of 7:04 atmospheric rivers and the subtropical 7:07 jet in this region. So that needs to be 7:10 looked at. Like I say, this is this 7:11 event just happened, you know, last 7:14 week. Basically, 7:16 some climate scientists have suggested 7:18 atmospheric rivers or shifts in the 7:20 subtropical jetream to transport 7:22 moisture beyond the Himalayas. So that 7:25 needs to be looked at. of course in more 7:27 detail. I'll do a whole separate video 7:30 soon on the phenomena of atmospheric 7:33 rivers and how they're changing under 7:35 climate change. So, climate change 7:37 underlies all of these things. It 7:40 contributed to more frequent and intense 7:42 disturbances, these so-called western 7:44 disturbances. 7:46 The it it's amplified the energy in the 7:48 monsoon. There's more unpredictably, 7:51 more variability, so rare events become 7:53 more possible. So it's a synergy of 7:56 different meteorological events. So 7:59 let's have a look at what um some of the 8:02 articles have been saying on this 8:05 particular phenomena. 8:09 Okay. So first of all 8:13 this this was um an article um from a 8:17 month or so ago. South Asian monsoon 8:20 2025 wetter hotter and more 8:22 unpredictable. This is global from 8:24 global climate risks. 8:27 Okay. So they've had an intensified 8:29 summer monsoon temperatures forecasted 8:32 up to two Celsius above normal above 8:34 average rainfall across India, Nepal, 8:37 Tibet and neighboring regions. 8:40 Um 8:43 and you know of course most of the 8:45 flooding in South Asia about 3/4 of it 8:49 occurs during summer monsoons. 8:52 Um so there are there are mortalities 8:55 from this. So June to August Pakistan 8:57 had deadly floods, intense monsoon 8:59 rains, 260 people lost their lives. In 9:03 North India, heavy monsoon rains 9:05 triggered deaths from cloud bursts, 9:07 flash floods, landslides. 9:10 The state reported 25 cloud bursts and 9:12 over 40 flood events. So like the the 9:15 sky just falls on you basically all the 9:17 moisture in the sky. Um, nep Nepal uh 31 9:23 deaths, 151 injuries, 682 monsoon 9:26 related events. So the weather is just 9:28 gone haywire there plus two Celsius 9:32 seasonal anomalies in temperature, above 9:34 average rainfall. 9:36 The agriculture and water systems in 9:38 South Asia support nearly two billion 9:40 people. So there's more vulnerability 9:42 with increased variability. 9:45 The monsoon circulation is trending to 9:48 becoming weaker even though rainfall is 9:50 increasing. This contradiction is caused 9:53 by global warming. It increases heat and 9:55 moisture in the atmosphere. It can 9:56 reduce vertical air movement. It says 9:58 here the weather whiplashing is a 10:02 variation within a single monsoon season 10:05 like the switching between wet and dry 10:07 and wet and dry. It's hard to predict 10:09 these things. Enso's playing a role. 10:12 They talk about the polar warming, 10:15 disrupting the jet streams, affecting 10:17 the um causing more erratic behavior. 10:21 Okay, so this um so this monsoon's been 10:24 pretty intense. 10:26 Um this is an update on uh the monsoon 10:30 rains uh from just um the end of August. 10:34 Um climate change definitely intensified 10:38 has intensified India's rains. So the 10:41 monsoon this year, it was unusually 10:43 severe. It arrived earlier than 10:46 expected, caused widespread damage. 10:49 Climate change has intensified it. 10:51 There's been multiple so-called western 10:53 disturbances that contribute to extreme 10:55 weather events. 10:58 So so these things uh it arrived um 14 11:03 to 18 days earlier than forecast. it 11:06 pummeled collect you know different 11:08 areas as it moved across India 11:11 um flash floods really high flooding 11:15 erratic behavior the monsoon uh it's it 11:19 says it's it by by end of August it had 11:22 already that the region had already seen 11:25 15 western disturbances right and that 11:28 number increased as I mentioned in the 11:30 introduction 11:33 and uh flash flooding and and and and 11:35 and so on. So very intense monsoons 11:39 being going on. 11:41 Um this is the government of India um 11:44 earth system science organization. So 11:47 what they have to say this is a press 11:49 release from just a few days ago 11:52 September 11 2025 11:54 about different um behaviors of the 11:58 monsoon. But this is this is just over 12:00 India. Okay. It talks about north uh 12:04 north India, northwest India. Um it 12:08 talks about all regions of of India. So 12:11 different um rainfall amounts and 12:14 departures and so on. So there's a lot 12:16 of regional differences. Some areas, you 12:19 know, like 12:21 are only getting half the rainfall. 12:23 Other areas are getting almost well 40% 12:26 more in other regions. Okay? So there's 12:29 a lot of variability. um they give 12:31 forecasts and so on. So there's there 12:34 but it doesn't talk really about um the 12:37 about the monsoon crossing the 12:38 Himalayas. So this is uh one of the 12:41 articles. So I I have a whole bunch of 12:42 different articles. I'm just going to 12:44 show you some stuff. Um so monsoon 12:47 breaches Himalayas, moisture reaches 12:49 Tibet. Um so so southwest monsoon winds 12:54 cross the Himalayas carried moisture 12:56 into Tibet. 12:57 It's normally blocked by the mountain 12:59 barrier. 13:01 Right. But it uh Tibet's largely dry. So 13:05 when it's blocked by the mountain 13:06 barrier, the rain has the the clouds 13:08 have nowhere to go. I mean, they deposit 13:10 their rain in India, Nepal, and Bhutan 13:13 while leaving the area, but Tibet's 13:15 largely dry, but it's mostly there's not 13:18 a lot of weather stations up in Tibet. 13:20 satellite images show the moisture 13:22 drifting um into into the Tibetan 13:25 plateau and it's a very rare occurrence 13:28 possibly unprecedented. It's been 13:30 related to global warming increased 13:32 weather disturbances. Okay, so it's an 13:35 extraordinarily 13:37 extraordinary and potentially 13:38 significant for South Asian Asia's 13:41 weather and ecosystem. So there's so 13:44 let's look at the region where we are. 13:46 This is the region um Zanscar 13:50 is right this region right here. Okay. 13:53 Elevation actually look at the elevation 13:56 down here 3530 m. Um but but here's 14:02 where where where we are. So the the 14:06 moisture has come right in and made it 14:08 up to there probably through different 14:12 valleys, you know, different valleys and 14:14 roots, but it still got across, you 14:16 know, this is uh 3,700 m. You know, 14:21 there's some air 4,000 m. Okay, it still 14:24 has to go extremely high in order to get 14:27 up to this region. I'm going to back off 14:29 a bit and you can see, you know, India 14:32 here. 14:33 um you know so this is the uh so so 14:38 the winds are from the southwest moving 14:41 to the northeast and and there was so 14:44 much moisture from the so-called western 14:46 disturbances added to the the monsoon 14:50 vected that moisture up it reached the 14:52 um mountains and got uplifted it was 14:55 already at higher than normal levels 14:57 anyway some of it made it up into here 14:59 100 millimeters of rain and snow in this 15:01 region so the barrier area normally it's 15:04 very very dry up here and you get 15:06 tremendous rainfall here. So the 15:08 contrast is enormous because of the 15:10 topography 15:12 but you know the so-called him Himalayan 15:15 divide uh was breached because of the 15:18 intensity of these uh of of of the the 15:22 moisture and it probably atmospheric 15:24 rivers were associated andor the jetream 15:27 but I'll have to talk about those those 15:29 those in in a future video. Um, this is 15:33 Earth Null School. You can kind of look 15:34 at the uh, you know, what's going on 15:36 with the winds and you can, you know, 15:39 you can what's going on now, you know, 15:42 and you can see, you can go back to the 15:44 dates. Um, this is September 16. You can 15:47 go back to the dates. You can scroll 15:48 back a day, you know, a you can scroll 15:51 back in time or just go here and set the 15:54 date. So, this is like September 1st 15:58 conditions on September 1st. If you you 16:01 can advance forward and we're talking 16:04 about the breaching up these winds up 16:06 here. Um this is a this is ground level 16:09 winds. Um you can go up to various uh 16:14 you know you can look at what the jet 16:15 streams are doing back in this time for 16:17 example 16:19 and see uh you can see you know this you 16:23 I I think you could see you know we're 16:26 up here. Is it is it this moisture being 16:28 carried up by up this by here? This is 16:31 September 3rd. 16:34 Maybe this shifts down over time. 16:37 Sorry, I'm hitting the wrong button. 16:40 Uh 16:42 September 4th, 16:44 September 5th, 16:48 you know, maybe I'm guessing it probably 16:50 happened about here. 16:53 I don't know. I mean, is this is this 16:54 part of the phenomena? Anyway, you can 16:56 play around with the Earth's null school 16:58 and have a look some other articles. 17:01 Monsoon crosses the Himalayas into Tibet 17:04 are bigger disasters ahead. 17:07 Okay, so there was a lot of um noise 17:10 about this about a week ago. Then it 17:12 dropped off the map being replaced by 17:14 other things. But basically satellite 17:16 images, field studies point to global 17:19 warming and an unusual rise in western 17:21 disturbances. So a lot more than normal 17:23 as I mentioned. 17:25 Um and then when you combine that with 17:27 the advection the the the winds uh 17:31 horizontal winds due from the monsoon 17:34 carrying it to the barrier in the 17:36 Himalayas. It has nowhere to go but up 17:38 or or to split across because normally 17:41 the towering wall of the Himalayas 17:43 blocks these winds. They strike the 17:45 mountain ranges, unload rain across 17:47 India, Nepal and Bhutan and leave Tibet 17:49 largely dry. But in the first week of 17:52 September 2025, satellites captured 17:54 moisture drifting up into the Tibetan 17:57 plateau, breaching the Himalayan divide. 18:00 Okay, so that's so you know, and there's 18:03 people there, you know, the images are 18:04 clear, the satellite images are clear. 18:06 The moisture breached the Himalayan 18:08 bearer and traveled north into Tibet. 18:10 It's unusual because the Himalayans 18:12 usually hold the line. Why did this 18:15 happen? Um they mentioned the unusually 18:18 high number of western disturbances in 18:20 this monsoon season. 19 disturbances 18:24 have been recorded. Five each in June, 18:26 July and August and three more in early 18:29 September. 18:30 These weather systems are usually winter 18:34 phenomena. They bring rain and snow to 18:36 North India and the Himalayas in the 18:38 colder months. But this year they 18:40 happened earlier. They collided with the 18:43 monsoons moist currents which is very 18:45 unusual. and that's pushed them further 18:46 north to breach the divide. Another 18:50 factor could be the so-called 18:51 atmospheric rivers. Okay, these fastm 18:55 moving air air currents can carry 18:57 immense amounts of water vapor. Western 19:00 disturbances or atmospheric rivers 19:02 connected with the subtropical jetream 19:04 can pick up monsoon moisture take it 19:06 across the Himalayas. 19:08 Okay. Uh global warming, steady rise in 19:11 greenhouse gases is heated land and 19:13 ocean. So very hot temperatures, 19:16 stronger updrafts, 19:18 right? Thinner snow and ice cover over 19:20 the Himalayas and Tibet. This opens 19:23 corridors for moisture to pass. It says 19:26 stronger winds at the Himalayan 19:28 foothills now lift moisture higher than 19:30 normal can trigger cloud burst and 19:33 valleys allow vapor to escape across the 19:35 ranges. 19:36 Um certain low passes, lower passes and 19:41 corridors within the Himalayans can act 19:44 as gateways. Um but they need to be uh 19:47 looked at and studied in more detail.19:49
Anyway, the monsoon crossing into Tibet
19:52
carries farreaching consequences.
19:55
It is first of all an evidence of a
19:57
shifting climate. Okay, so for centuries
20:00
the Himalayas have served as a climatic
20:03
wall. That shield appears weaker now. If
20:07
the barrier fails, South Asia's weather
20:09
cycle could undergo long-term changes.
20:13
Okay. So, the sudden in Tibet where
20:17
rainfall is scarce, sudden arrival of
20:20
monsoon moisture could gradually
20:22
transform ecosystems.
20:24
Right. A wetter Tibet could also
20:26
accelerate glacial melt, change the flow
20:28
of rivers that feed millions downstream.
20:33
For India, there's deeper concerns. The
20:35
monsoon delivers nearly 80% of the
20:37
country's rainfall just in the in in the
20:40
the seasonal monsoon. So that of course
20:43
is crucial for agriculture, water
20:46
supply. So if part of this moisture
20:48
bypasses India and flows into Tibet,
20:51
rainfall within India may decline. That
20:53
would threaten a lot of different
20:55
things. So anyway, there's no quick
20:57
conclusions on this. Uh but there are
21:00
some severe implications if it becomes a
21:03
regular phenomena. As of now, it's the
21:06
only time it's happened. It's
21:07
unprecedented. There a few more
21:09
articles. I'll just look at the
21:11
headlines. Monsoon crosses Himalayas
21:13
into Tibet. Bigger woes ahead. Um the
21:17
links are all in the description.
21:20
Um
21:22
I think I showed that one already.
21:25
Um, and there's lots of stuff on Reddit
21:28
for for what's happened.
21:30
Monsoon miracle or meteorological
21:33
disaster. Southwest winds defy Himalayan
21:35
barrier reach Tibet. Okay, so there's
21:37
lots of stuff on here. The Himalayan
21:40
shield weakening.
21:42
Now, I tried to look at some weather
21:44
data. There are National Geographic has
21:48
this website for Mount Everest weather
21:51
data and there's a whole bunch of
21:53
different stations which kind of leads
21:56
to the interesting question what weather
21:58
station is at the highest elevation and
22:02
then that's another question is you know
22:04
if jet streams are coming along it do we
22:07
actually have some weather stations on
22:09
top of mountains that are right in the
22:10
jetream before it splits and divides um
22:14
on these these um high elevation
22:17
um mountain ranges. Anyway, this data it
22:20
all goes back to 2023. So, it was they
22:23
got funding. They they did this had this
22:25
all these weather stations on Everest,
22:27
but there's not current data on them.
22:30
But, you know, it's it does beg the
22:32
question, what is I think in China, they
22:35
have the world's um highest elevation
22:38
weather station. Probably worth a
22:40
separate video on, you know, what sort
22:42
of things that it's it's finding.
22:45
Anyway, thank you for listening. Please
22:47
go to my website, paulbeckwith.net,
22:50
and donate to PayPal to support my
22:52
research and videos. And I'm on a
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plethora of social media sites. Um, I
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have Patreon. Um, I'm using I'm trying
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to post on all kinds of different sites
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and do reals and do Tik Tok videos and
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stuff. So, you know, if you're on any of
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these social media things, just search
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for my name, Paul Beckwith. No spaces,
23:17
um, is is my most common handle on on on
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all of these different social media
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sites. So, thanks again for listening
23:25
and, uh, bye for now.
All
From Paul Beckwith
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