TRANSCRIPT
Today, we're jumping into a huge fight where science, politics, and honestly, the future of our weather forecasts are all colliding. A world famous scientific institution is actually facing a shutdown. And the fallout from this could affect every single one of us. So, the entire conflict, it really boils down to this one central question. Can you surgically separate climate from weather? Now, that might sound like a purely scientific question, right? But the answer has ignited a massive political firestorm. Keep that question in your head as we unpack what's going on.
And this is the institution right at the heart of it all. The National Center for Atmospheric Research or NCAR. For decades, it's been the glue holding everything together from supercomputers and research planes to global data and community models. It truly is the mother ship of atmospheric science.
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KE: the mother ship of atmospheric science, cool
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And now it's facing a plan to be completely dismantled. So, how do we even get here? Let's break down the plan that put this scientific mother ship directly in the crosshairs. First off, what exactly is NCAR? Well, for 65 years, it's been an absolute pillar for researchers all over the globe. It gives them the essential tools for their work. We're talking free access to massive data sets, unbelievable supercomputing power and critical models like the WRF for weather forecasting and the CESM for climate modeling. Scientists everywhere rely on this stuff to predict everything from hurricanes to long-term drought. So, why on Earth would anyone target it?
Well, according to the White House budget director Russell Vought,, the stated goal is to get rid of what he calls climate alarmism, which he claims ENCAR is a major source of.
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KE: ALARMISM? As opposed to purposely ignorant
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So, you can see the plan's aims are right from the start very political and very ideological. And the plan itself, it's brutally simple. Step one, shut down the iconic Mesa Lab in Boulder. Step two, take what the administration considers core weather functions and just move them to other agencies. And as for the crown jewels, you know, things like the Datio supercomputer and the entire fleet of research aircraft, their fate is completely up in the air.
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KE: The image of Isis tearing down statues and other cultural icons in Iraq a few years back just sprang into my mind
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And this brings us right back to that core scientific idea behind the entire plan, a really controversial attempt to fundamentally split the study of weather from the study of climate. Okay, so the administration's logic is to draw this hard line in the sand. They want to keep the short-term study of weather, you know, your daily and weekly forecasts, but they want to completely get rid of the long-term study of climate patterns and global trends. The question is, can science actually be chopped up like this? The scientific community's answer to that has been a huge resounding no. And this quote just captures their view perfectly. One scientist said the plan was like trying to surgically remove the respiratory system from the circulatory system.
I mean, they're completely interconnected. You just can't have one without the other. It doesn't work. Now, this move didn't just get scientists riled up. It set off a massive, and I mean immediate political backlash. And that led to something we really don't see very often these days, a very unlikely bipartisan alliance. And the reaction was incredibly fast. Okay, so the plan gets announced on December 17th. By the 19th, a major scientific organization issues a formal condemnation. And by the 21st, that's just 4 days later, a powerful bipartisan group of lawmakers had already come together to fight back. Because Encar is located in Boulder, the Colorado congressional delegation immediately formed what they started calling a firewall to protect it. And they did not mince words. In a joint statement, a group including both Democrats and Republicans called the plan illegal and indefensible. That's a really powerful statement of unity, warning that this move would gut their state's research economy and weaken national security.
So what's their game plan? Well, it comes down to Congress's power of the purse. They have vowed to block any federal money that could be used to dismantle NCAR when the budget comes up for approval. But this wasn't just a political fight happening in Washington. The scientific community and the public also mobilized, creating this amazing unified front. You had three of the biggest scientific organizations in the country, the AMS, UKAR, and the AGU. And they formed what you could call three shields of defense. Each one came out with these strong statements warning about dire consequences. Everything from economic damage to a weaker response to disasters like hurricanes and wildfires. And they even launched a public campaign called Save Encar.
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And this image, wow, it really just captures the moment perfectly. You've got the Democratic donkey and the Republican elephant shaking hands, and they're being protected by the shields of the scientific institutions, all while citizens are rallying to defend Encar. It just shows this powerful coalition of politics, science, and public will.
But maybe the most stark warning of all came from the renowned climate scientist Michael Mann. He put it so bluntly. This isn't just about research papers. It's a life safety issue. He argued that crippling Encar's ability to model extreme events like wildfires and hurricanes means the ultimate cost will be a loss of life.
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And that message really resonated beyond the halls of Congress and scientific meetings. The fight spilled out into the public square. You had hundreds of people, scientists, students, regular citizens protesting on the streets of Boulder, arguing that Encar's work is a cornerstone of public safety, not some political pawn. So where does all this leave us? Well, right in the middle of an ongoing conflict that we're calling the battle for America's forecast. The immediate future of ENCAR is going to be decided in the chambers of Congress.
The entire fight now hinges on that federal budget process and whether that bipartisan firewall can successfully block the funding needed to actually carry out the dismantling plan. Ultimately, what this has all boiled down to is a direct collision. On one side, you have a top-down political directive coming from the executive branch, and on the other, you've got this powerful grassroots alliance of local interests, bipartisan cooperation, and just overwhelming scientific fact.
And that leaves us with one final and really critical question because this story is about so much more than just one lab in Colorado. When our key scientific institutions become political battlegrounds, what does that mean for our ability to understand and predict the world around us, to predict our own future? ******https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UmoxwDxPn0
-Keblogger
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