We know all about our national security threat from mother Russia, but what about mother nature? The government has admitted for the first time that climate and biodiversity loss are parts of our national security. They don't do that lightly.
A report about the risk nature loss poses the UK was put together by the government's joint intelligence committee. It was finally made public in January, but ITV News has learned that the most worrying details have been kept secret. It needs to release the full report and it needs to start explaining to the public how it's going to deal with those risks.
We can now reveal the warnings the government chose to hide, including threats to NATO, nuclear escalation, deadly diseases, and even economic disaster. Alarm bells should be ringing.
If we don't deal with nature loss, the consequences of that is more than double what we saw in the financial crisis. We're talking about a drop in GDP, bigger than the amount we currently spend on the NHS. Now, we can exclusively reveal that 25 of the leading environmental groups are demanding the government steps up. Now is the time to act and that we need to do that in a way that is sufficient to address the scale of threat we are now seeing in this report.
So, what was in the original report and what was hidden from you? What exactly are the threats we face and how seriously should we take them? Here's what you need to know.
Let's go back a bit. The 21st of January, 2026. As the world is watching Donald Trump demand control of Greenland, all the United States is asking for is a place called Greenland. The long- awaited global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse, and national security report was quietly released. 14 pages of impact and threat assessments, concluding that the decline in the health of nature globally threatens the UK's security and prosperity.
The report that was was published about biodiversity loss being a national security issue is a seminal moment because it is the first time that the government has said that something that isn't defense is a national security issue and they've named biodiversity loss and I think it is very significant indeed and as part of that it was climate change as well. The published report gives no indication it is a summary or that anything has been redacted, but evidence we've seen shows key details are missing. So, what are they?
*********
Evidence we've seen shows key details are missing. So, what are they?
******************
Let's start with the economy. The published report warns of the financial impact of droughts, flooding, and nature loss, but with few specific details. The full report warns that in the worst case scenario of ecosystem collapse, damage to the natural environment is slowing UK growth and productivity and could lead to annual GDP being 12% lower than it would be otherwise by 2030. 12% which is one of the extreme scenarios that's modeled in this work; if we don't deal with nature loss, the consequences of that is is more than double what we saw in the financial crisis that triggered some of the major interventions that government took to prop up the banks and put the economy back on its footing. Then you've got food insecurity. It's one of the biggest concerns in the report. Extra details we've uncovered warn of the UK increasingly exposed to state threats, particularly if our food system becomes a more desirable target and the risk of NATO being drawn into escalating conflicts over arable land. NATO article 3 makes it completely clear that you must have a resilient homeland and a resilient government in order to be able to fight on the front line. In the Second World War, running out of food was reportedly Churchill's biggest fear. Then the Atlantic convoy came to the rescue. Now we grow even less of what we eat than we did then, and increasing risks of floods and drought make us even more exposed.
There is a direct correlation between the effectiveness of our armed forces and taking homeland resilience which includes the ability to be able to protect ourselves against climate change and biodiversity loss to support the military. Another issue is migration.
*********
Migration
****************
We know that climate change is increasingly one of the biggest motivators for people to move. The published report does highlight the risk that poses to international geopolitical stability. We can reveal the full report links that directly to the UK, warning of the potential for more polarized and populist politics. Also, an increase in people trafficking like small boat crossings coming to the UK. It's incredibly frustrating that although governments have done the good work they need to do of doing the assessment; and from what we understand, they've taken into consideration a lot of the academic analysis that shows how biodiversity loss has impacts on our economy. They aren't sharing that. openly and being honest about it.
And part of the reason we think is because they haven't really got a plan about what they're going to do about it. It talks in broad terms about the impact of shrinking rainforests and coral reefs. But the most worrying details are again emitted. The report mentions the release of diseases as permafrosts in the boreal forest melt, but text we've seen specifically mentions anthrax with the potential again in a worst case scenario to trigger mass mortality events.
It's a similar story with the Himalayas. potential future scarcity of water is acknowledged. But it doesn't mention the original warning that shrinking glaciers will almost certainly escalate tension between China, India and Pakistan, increasing the threat of nuclear exchanges.
The report was thin on plans and large on the threat.
We now need to see the plans that go behind it and what that the government must have drawn its conclusions to to keep our national security safe regardless of the threat. Next, let's look at the link between climate change and nature.
We know that warming temperatures are impacting some species' abilities to thrive, but the impact can go the opposite way too. The risk of naturally trapped carbon being released is acknowledged. But again, those worst case projections have been removed. Take the Amazon rainforest for example. Projections we have seen show the potential amount of carbon which could be released is equivalent to between 15 and 20 years of global CO2 emissions. What happens in places like the Amazon and in the Congo to those, you know, huge tropical forests really matters for the UK. So, let's put that funding in place, too.
********
Release the full report and start explaining to the public
*******************
It needs to release the full report and it needs to start explaining to the public how it's going to deal with those risks rather than giving us a sanitized simplified version and and pretending it can brush it under the carpet. We can exclusively reveal that 25 environmental organizations including the RSPB, WWF and wildlife trusts have signed a letter to K star expressing their deep concern and demanding urgent action and funding to prioritize nature at home and abroad. So the letter is saying now is the time to act and that we need to do that in a way that is sufficient to address the scale of threat we are now seeing in this report and that is going to mean more funding and it's going to mean the political will to make that action happen fast. We put all this to DERA, the government department which published the report, asking specifically why the most worrying conclusions from it were omitted.
And if, as we were told by a source, that was a deliberate action because they know their current policies aren't strong enough. They didn't put anybody up for interview or answer those specific points, but did tell us that this assessment will inform our actions to prepare the UK for the future, adding that they've committed more than 25 billion pounds to flood prevention, sustainable farming, and habitat protection. So, what have we learned?
Well, it's important to stress that these extreme warnings are worst case scenarios in the event of ecosystem breakdowns. But the very fact intelligence chiefs are briefing the government not on military risks, but the threat of declining nature is huge. When you're talking about things as serious as pandemics, political unrest, economic decline, and even war, it is a key job of the government to defend our national security. This report has left them with a lot to think about.***https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59DZiPdsOc8&t=263s
No comments:
Post a Comment