'More than a billion people are going to be displaced by global warming from their homes between now and 2050'- Video/ Transcript/ The Heating Planet series at CofA Blog

The International Organization of Migration estimate is that more than a billion people are going to be displaced from their homes between now and 2050, so just the next 25 years. When 0:09 we think about climate related displacement, I think there's a certain assumption that global heating is gonna cause millions and millions of people to be at the gates of US Europe. 0:20 Actually, the IPCC estimates that 90% are going to be displaced domestically within 0:25 their own countries. Most of them are going to be destined for the mega cities of the global south, 0:31 which are already under strain in terms of their infrastructure and their capacity. The question for us now is what happens when that return becomes more and more difficult because 0:40 of the ecological conditions of home become permanently altered and perhaps uninhabitable. 0:51 Today I'm pleased to be joined by Sunil Amrith, a professor of history at Yale University, 0:57 as well as a professor at Yale School of the Environment, where we discuss a topic 

 1:03 I've been keenly interested in exploring on the show, which is human migration. 1:08 Sunil earned his doctorate at the University of Cambridge and is published widely in the fields of environmental history, the history of human migration, and the history of public health. 1:18 His research focuses on the movement of humans and the ecological processes that 1:24 have connected south and Southeast Asia and has expanded to encompass global environmental history. In addition to teaching, Sunil is the current director of 1:34 the Whitney and Beney McMillan Center for International and Area Studies at Yale. 1:39 His new book, the Burning Earth, is an environmental history of the modern world that foregrounds the experience of the global south. In this episode, 1:10:24 our understanding of the society around us, which is to say that there are people who may 1:10:29 not over the last 2, 3, 4 generations have ever had to consider migration. There are 1:10:34 people around the world who really do see themselves as very much rooted in place. and perhaps some portion of those people are going to have to start 1:10:43 to contemplate what it might be like for the place that they know so well 1:10:49 to change and maybe change unrecognizably. So that's at the sort of personal level. And then to link that to the fact that this is happening everywhere. 1:10:56 This is happening to people all over the world, that the climate nature itself is not what we're 1:11:04 accustomed to thinking it is. We talked about hydrological stability. Most of us are not 1:11:09 aware. We took that for granted. But maybe we can start to see that we have, it's a big ask. 1:11:15 this is one, one of many things to widen our boundary and our imagination on that are all a little threatening on the surface. 1:11:24 yeah. So, I don't know how much you follow the podcast, but you know, I, 1:11:30 asked some closing questions of all my guests so you could keep it on this topic or broaden it out, 1:11:36 to other aspects of global upheaval, what some call the meta crisis. But do 1:11:42 you have any personal advice to the listeners, of the program at this time? 1:11:47 I think the first thing I'd say is that the anxiety that I think many listeners 1:11:53 and viewers of the program feel about this meta crisis is one that, you know, 1:11:59 on a personal note, I share on a daily basis. I think we are living through deeply alarming 1:12:07 and unsettling times. And I think at the same time that in some ways despair is a luxury. 1:12:17 It can very easily lead to nihilism. And so without false hope or artificial hope, 1:12:24 I do think that in community and in collectives, wherever and however we might find them, 1:12:33 there are still so many things that we can do to make a better world. You personally, Sunil, are watching this movie in your research and before you go to bed, 1:12:45 you know, the idea of what's baked in on the climate scenarios and the 1:12:50 global population where the concentration is. So how do you personally cope with, 1:12:57 the replaying of that movie as part of your professional, vocation over and over? 1:13:03 That's a very thoughtful question. Nate. Thank you. I sometimes I have to stop the movie. and 1:13:08 I think. It's very important for me in my own life. And I think this may well be true for many listeners to, you know, to find joy where we find it, in my case, in music. 1:13:20 And, you know, for, listeners and viewers, I think wherever you might find it. But I think there are times I'm not thinking about the climate crisis and I think 1:13:27 that's really quite important. Totally agree. So are you teaching now or mostly research? Both. I, teach regularly. What are your classes this semester or next? 1:13:37 This semester, I'm about to start a, a class on modern South Asia. So really kind of bread and butter, graduate seminar on South Asian history. But I also teach 1:13:45 classes on global environmental history, on environmental justice, on migration. 1:13:51 You obviously, cover some intense and current event relevant, 1:13:59 topics with your young humans in those classes at Yale. What specific recommendations do you have for young people in their teens and 1:14:07 twenties who become aware of this broader environmental and economic, constraints? 1:14:13 I mean, I think in some ways I'd almost turn that around and say that in the end I learn more from 1:14:18 them than I do from all the reading that I do because they've grown up with this awareness. 1:14:24 And in a way, they're the first generation to do so. my own children who are 11 and seven years old, I mean, they have been aware of environmental threats and climate crisis 1:14:34 from a very young age. Not necessarily because we've consciously told them about these things, but it's, there. And so I would say to them, you're the first generation for 200 years, 1:14:46 we, or at least those of us in the world with. Some wealth and power have taken for granted the idea that there are no limits, 1:14:53 and in some sense, if we're going to understand what human flourishing could look like within these limits, it's their generation who is gonna show 1:15:02 us that way.

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So given the environmental catastrophes 1:15:07  that caused human migrations in the past, this one at least potentially is different. 1:15:13 First of all, 'cause it's global. secondly, because we are aware of it kind of in the same way a boiling frog might be in, in a intellectual, 1:15:23 neocortex sort of way.

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So given the environmental catastrophes or the environmental pressures 1:15:07 of the past that cause human migrations in the past, this one at least potentially is different. 1:15:13 First of all, 'cause it's global. secondly, because we are aware of it kind of in the same way a boiling frog might be in, in a intellectual, 1:15:23 neocortex sort of way. So these young people, you're right, they have been aware of what's kind of predicted in coming decades. So is that a blessing or a curse? 1:15:36 Is it a curse in the sense that they constantly have to play this movie about the future? Or is it a blessing in that they're prepared for a new narrative and they 1:15:45 have more empathy and concern or what, is your, what do you think about that? I think it's both at the same time. I mean, 1:15:52 there's a lot of work that psychologists have done on ecological anxiety, ecological grief. 1:15:58 I think there's are very real things. And at the same time, I think there is a certain 1:16:06 creativity and imagination that I certainly see in my students, which is not nihilistic and 1:16:13 which is not despairing. One could say that it's utopian perhaps, but I think we need some of that. 1:16:21 What do you care most about in the world, Sunil? My children, my students. and so I suppose you could say about the future because, 1:16:32 you know about the world that they will inherit and that they will make. Yeah, they're definitely intertwined. If you could wave a magic wand and there 1:16:42 was no personal recourse to your decision or your tenure at Yale, et cetera, what is one thing you would do to improve human and planetary futures? 1:16:52 I would introduce lavishly funded free public education from. Preschool through to college, 1:17:00 and I think the key there is lavishly funded. You know, we all know what underfunded public education looks like. I think a transformative change in the world would come from, you know, 1:17:11 finished levels of investment in education for everybody agreed. With a caveat education about what the current college curriculums and high school curriculums, 1:17:23 just distributed more for, getting people into the existing labor force with our current 1:17:30 aspirations and goals. and objectives, or would you also change the education? 1:17:35 I changed the education. I think you asked, the best possible question, and in some sense, 1:17:41 you know, the conversations you have on this podcast get us towards, you know, what shift in mindset perspective do we need to prepare young people for 1:17:52 the world that we are now living in and that we're gonna live in. If you were to come back on the show in six months or a year, what is one, 1:18:00 you know, you're, a curious human, you're in, the academy and you're a teacher, but what is, 1:18:06 like something you're really curious about, a research question that's relevant to, our collective futures that you would be willing to take a deep dive on in the future? 1:18:15 The theme I'm thinking about at the moment is the idea of repair in the biggest sort 1:18:22 of meta sense. You know, what would it mean to repair our planet and our relationship with our planet? But then to kind of take that really down to very material sense, you know, 1:18:33 what is it to repair a pipeline? What is it to repair, the infrastructures that we live with? 1:18:38 And so that's the big idea that I'm delving into, both in a slightly philosophical way and in terms of research that I'm doing. I'm 1:18:47 not sure that I'll be anywhere further in six months, but certainly, you know, at some point. are you writing another book? On, the theme of repair. I am. Oh, on the, okay. 1:18:56 Wow. Awesome. But I'm only just getting started. Yeah. Thank you so much for your time and, 1:19:02 your commitment to this important topic. Thank you for having me, Nate. I've really enjoyed our conversation. do you have any closing comments for people watching listening who understand and, 1:19:12 agree with what you've laid out here today? You are not alone. There are many of us, I think, who care very much about these things. All of the 1:19:19 listeners to this podcast, all of the listeners, to, many other podcasts and programs that are 1:19:26 trying to. Shift us towards a new way of thinking, and I think that knowledge in and of itself will 1:19:32 hopefully spur us to solidarity, to connecting with each other and to working together. Thanks, Sunil. Thank you. 1:19:39 If you enjoyed or learned from this episode of The Great Simplification, please follow us on your favorite podcast platform. You can also visit The Great 1:19:50 Simplification dot com for references and show notes from today's conversation. And 1:19:55 to connect with fellow listeners of this podcast, check out our Discord channel. 1:20:01 This show is hosted by me, Nate Hagens, edited by No Troublemakers Media, 1:20:07 and produced by Misty Stinnett, Leslie Balu, Brady Hyen, and Lizzie Siri.