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Sunday, August 31, 2025
The Rising Threat of Humid Heat Waves, read Sk56 PhD on Blogspot; Heating Planet series at CofA Blog
"Most of the deadliest heat waves to date have been dry heat waves. But as our climate warms, a possibly even deadlier heat is on the rise. Heat is the deadliest weather disaster in the U.S. and many parts of the world, and it's projected to get a lot deadlier. During the 2003 European heatwave, up to 3,400 people died in Paris alone. At two degrees Celsius, which is again only a couple decades away, scientists found that Paris will see deadly heat waves like this once every few years rather than once a century.
And though this heat wave in 2003 was among the deadliest in recent history, it didn't get close to the dangerous wet-bulb thresholds we've been discussing. But the 2015 heat wave in Karachi did it passed the uncompensable wet-bulb threshold for older adults for something like eight to 10% of the time. But at two degrees Celsius of warming, we can see that the uncompensable threshold is crossed for younger adults as well. And at four degrees, models show that the same event would cross the uncompensable threshold for older adults for about 90% of the heat waves duration.
As temperatures rise, we can hold a lot more moisture in the atmosphere. And so this means that if a given location has air temperatures going up with ongoing climate change, it's likely that if they have a moisture source, humidity's also going to increase."

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