Global ocean heating 4x faster than late '80s per University of Reading, England study; eddie evans 3-min Dec 3 vlog w transcript, Heating Planet blog

Study helps explain why 2023 and early 2024 saw unprecedented ocean temperatures that will be exceeded in next 20 years because the surface oceans set the pace for global warming, unless we stop CO2 emissions. READ & WATCH Global ocean is heating faster-[Eddie Evans Climate Deception youtube Joined Aug 22, 2009]

TRANSCRIPT

Ocean surface warming four times faster now than late 1980s. January 28th, 2025. The rate of ocean warming has more than quadrupled over the past four decades. A new study has shown. Ocean temperatures were rising at about 006° C per decade in the late 1980s, but are now increasing at 27 degrees C per decade. Published Tuesday, January 28th, 2025, in Environmental Research Letters, the study helps explain why 2023 and early 2024 saw unprecedented ocean temperatures.

Professor Chris Merchant, lead author at the University of Reading and National Center for Earth Observation, said, "If the oceans were a bathtub of water, then in the 1980s, the hot tap was running slowly, warming up the water by just a fraction of a degree each decade. But now the hot tap is running much faster and the warming has picked up speed. The way to slow down that warming is to start closing off the hot tap by cutting global carbon emissions and moving towards net zero energy imbalance.

“This accelerating ocean warming is driven by the Earth's growing energy imbalance whereby more energy from the sun is being absorbed in the earth's system than is escaping back to space. This imbalance has roughly doubled since 2010 in part due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and because the Earth is now reflecting less sunlight to space than before.

“Global ocean temperatures hit record highs for 450 days straight in 2023 and early 2024. Some of this warmth came from El Nino, a natural warming event in the Pacific. When scientists compared it to a similar El Nino in 2015-16, they found that the rest of the record warmth is explained by the sea surface warming up faster in the past 10 years than in earlier decades. 44% of the record warmth was attributable to the oceans absorbing heat at an accelerating rate. 

“Expect more warming. The findings show that the overall rate of global ocean warming observed over recent decades is not an accurate guide to what happens next. It is plausible that the ocean temperature increase seen over the past 40 years will be exceeded in just the next 20 years because the surface oceans set the pace for global warming. This matters for the climate as a whole. This accelerating warming underscores the urgency of reducing fossil fuel burning to prevent even more rapid temperature increases in the future and to begin to stabilize the climate.” Merchant CJ, Alan RP, and Embry O. 2025. Quantifying the acceleration of multi-deadal global sea surface warming driven by Earth's energy imbalance. Environmental research letters 2204,037. Doy.

2.50 END

[KE: Everything climate scientists predicted about global warming/ climate change since the 1970s is coming true, only faster]

In Hindi "If AMOC collapses, monsoon will go crazy; not just a scientific warning, a cry from the future" Lost Pages By Suraj Shett Yahaan Dec 8 vlog w translated transcript, Heating Planet blog

We have lived on this Earth for thousands of years 

And when we imagine the next 200–300 years, 

one terrifying question rises— 

Will this world even exist? 

And will we still be here?”

READ & WATCH:The Global Freeze Event: What Happens When AMOC Stops? Transcript translated from Hindi below[The Lost Pages By Suraj Shett Yahaan hum space, universe, astronomy aur science ke un raazों को explore karte hain jo hamare dimaag को hila dete हैं — from black holes to distant galaxies, from cosmic mysteries to the future of humanity. from India Joined Jul 30, 2024]

TRANSCRIPT Translated by Google

We humans have lived on this planet for thousands of years. We've seen civilizations, empires rise and fall, and today we imagine the next 200 to 300 years. We wonder what the future will hold. What kind of world will our children live in? But the real question is, will that world survive? Will we even be able to survive? Because today our planet is facing a threat that is invisible and silent, yet powerful enough to shake our very souls. It's called an AMOC. And what's about to happen in the next 50 to 100 years is enough to shake your soul. 

Let's understand what an AMOC is. And why its slowing down is the world's biggest threat. 

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is Earth's largest, most powerful, and most dangerous ocean system. It's the system that controls the weather. It's the reason Europe is warm, the Americas stable, and India receives monsoons. Think of it like a heartbeat. A heartbeat that sends warm water from the equator toward Europe. 

There, the water cools, becomes heavier, and sinks into the dark depths of the ocean. Just like a giant machine breathing. Then, this cool water returns through the South Atlantic, maintaining the Earth's temperature. 

If the AMOC stops, this balance is broken, and the Earth falls apart. Over the past 100 years, global warming has rapidly melted the North Atlantic ice. This melted freshwater has spread like a thick sheet across the Atlantic's surface. Freshwater isn't heavy; it doesn't sink. This means the AMOC's engine, which pulls cold water downward, is now jammed. Scientists say the MOC is at its weakest point in the past 1000 years. 

The real fear begins. 

Europe could be submerged in a mini ice age. Warm water won't reach Europe. Temperatures could drop by 3 to 10 degrees Celsius. London, Paris, Germany will be trapped in ice for several months of the year. Europe's modern civilization will be trapped in a new Ice Age. 

Two, the surface of the Atlantic Ocean will heat up, and when the ocean warms, hurricanes become monsters. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes will increase. Florida, Texas, and New York will face disasters every year. 

Three, the monsoon in India and South Asia will collapse. Both the MOC and the monsoon are connected by an invisible thread. 

If the AMOC collapses, the monsoon will go crazy.

Sometimes there will be excessive rain, sometimes months-long drought, sometimes sudden floods. Agriculture, water, and food will all be in crisis in India. 

Four, if the MOC stops, the sea level on the East Coast, in the United States, could rise by up to 1 foot. Miami, Boston, New York will gradually become submerged cities. Five global weather systems will collapse. Heat waves in Australia, droughts in Africa, the Amazon drying up, strange weather in the North Atlantic. All of this will be part of the MOC collapse. The Earth will not be the same as it is today because MOC collapse doesn't happen slowly; it happens suddenly. 

One day the world will wake up and the weather will not be the same as it was yesterday, and once this system collapses it will take hundreds of years to return to normal. This isn't just a scientific warning; it's a cry from the future. The weakening of MOC is not a distant threat. It's already begun. The weather, which changes slightly each year, sudden rains, the strength of storms, and increasing heat, are all the first whispers of a storm that will shake the entire world in the coming decades. 

But the truth is, most people have no idea what this threat is, what is at stake, and how our future generations will be forced to live on a completely different Earth. We worry about our future, but we ignore the Earth's slowing heartbeat. AMOC is that heartbeat, and today, that heartbeat is slowly breaking. 

This isn't just science. it's our biggest story, and perhaps our biggest warning…. Fear is only conquered by knowledge and in the times to come, knowledge is our biggest shield.

IN HINDI

हम इंसानों ने इस धरती पर हजारों साल गुजारे हैं। हमने सभ्यताएं देखी, साम्राज्य उठते और गिरते देखे और आज हम आने वाले 200 से 300 सालों की कल्पना करते हैं। सोचते हैं कि भविष्य कैसा होगा? हमारे बच्चे किस तरह की दुनिया में जिएंगे? लेकिन असली सवाल यह है क्या वो दुनिया बचेगी भी? क्या हम इंसान रह पाएंगे? क्योंकि आज हमारी धरती एक ऐसे खतरे से गुजर रही है जो नजर नहीं आता जिसकी आवाज नहीं होती। लेकिन जिसकी ताकत हमारी रूह तक हिला सकती है। इसका नाम है एएमओसी और आने वाले 50 से 100 साल में जो होने वाला है वो आपकी रूह कांपने के लिए काफी है। आइए समझते हैं क्या है एएमओसी? और क्यों इसका धीमा होना दुनिया का सबसे बड़ा खतरा है। एएमओसी यानी अटलांटिक मेरीडिनल ओवर टटर्निंग सर्कुलेशन। धरती का सबसे विशाल, सबसे ताकतवर और सबसे खतरनाक ओशन सिस्टम। यह वो सिस्टम है जिसकी वजह से मौसम चलता है। जिसकी वजह से यूरोप गर्म है। अमेरिका स्थिर है और भारत में मॉनसून आता है। इसे समझो धड़कन की तरह। एक ऐसी धड़कन जो गर्म पानी को इक्वेटर से यूरोप की तरफ भेजती है। वहां पानी ठंडा होता है। भारी होता है और ओशन की काली गहराइयों में डूब जाता है। ठीक उसी तरह जैसे कोई विशालकाय मशीन सांस ले रही हो। फिर यह ठंडा पानी साउथ अटलांटिक से होते हुए वापस लौटता है और धरती का तापमान संतुलित रखता है। अगर एमओसी रुक जाए तो यह बैलेंस टूट जाता है और धरती एकदम अलग हो जाती है। पिछले 100 सालों में ग्लोबल वार्मिंग ने नॉर्थ अटलांटिक की बर्फ को तेजी से पिघला दिया है। यह पिघला हुआ मीठा पानी अटलांटिक की सतह पर एक मोटी चादर जैसा फैल गया है और मीठा पानी भारी नहीं होता। वह डूबता नहीं। यानी एमओसी का इंजन जो ठंडे पानी को नीचे खींच कर चलता था अब जाम होने लगा है। वैज्ञानिकों के मुताबिक एएमओसी आज उस सबसे कमजोर स्थिति में है जहां वो पिछले 1000 सालों में कभी नहीं पहुंचा। अब असली डर यहां से शुरू होता है। एक यूरोप मिनी आइस एज में डूब जाएगा। यूरोप तक गर्म पानी पहुंच ही नहीं पाएगा। तापमान 3 से 10 डिग्री सेल्सियस तक गिर सकता है। लंदन, पेरिस, जर्मनी साल के कई महीने बर्फ में कैद रहेंगे। यूरोप की आधुनिक सभ्यता एक नए आइस एज के बीच फंस जाएगी। दो अटलांटिक ओशन के सरफेस पर गर्मी बढ़ेगी और जब ओशन गर्म होता है तो तूफान राक्षस बन जाते हैं। कैटेगरी चार और पांच हररीिकेंस बढ़ेंगे। फ्लोरिडा, टेक्सस, न्यूयॉर्क हर साल आपदा झेलेंगे। तीन, इंडिया और साउथ एशिया में मॉनसून कोलैप्स। एमओसी और मसून दोनों एक अदृश्य धागे से जुड़े हैं। अगर एमओसी गिरा तो मसून पागल हो जाएगा। कभी अत्यधिक बारिश, कभी महीनों का सूखा, कभी अचानक बार। भारत में खेती, पानी, खाना सब संकट में। चार, एएमओसी रुकते ही ईस्ट कोस्ट, अमेरिका में सी लेवल 1 फुट तक बढ़ सकता है। नैमी, बोस्टन, न्यूयॉर्क धीरे-धीरे पानी में डूबते शहर बन जाएंगे। पांच ग्लोबल वेदर टूट जाएगा। ऑस्ट्रेलिया में हीट वेव्स, अफ्रीका में ड्राउ, अमज़ॉन सूखना, नॉर्दर्न अटलांटिक में अजीब मौसम। यह सब एमओसी कोलैप्स का हिस्सा होगा। धरती वैसी नहीं रहेगी जैसी आज है क्योंकि एमओसी कोलैप्स धीरे नहीं होता यह अचानक होता है। एक दिन दुनिया जागेगी और मौसम वही नहीं होगा जो कल था और एक बार यह सिस्टम गिर गया तो इसे वापस नॉर्मल होने में सैकड़ों साल लगेंगे। यह सिर्फ वैज्ञानिक चेतावनी नहीं, यह भविष्य की चीख है। एमोक का कमजोर होना कोई दूर का खतरा नहीं है। यह शुरुआत अभी हो चुकी है। हर साल थोड़ा-थोड़ा बदलता हुआ मौसम, अचानक आने वाली बारिश, तूफानों की ताकत और बढ़ती गर्मी यह सब उस तूफान की पहली फुसफुराहट है जो आने वाले दशकों में पूरी दुनिया को हिला देगा। पर सच यह है अधिकतर लोगों को पता ही नहीं कि यह खतरा क्या है, क्या दांव पर लगा है और कैसे हमारी आने वाली पीढ़ियां एक बिल्कुल अलग धरती पर जीने को मजबूर होंगी। हम अपने भविष्य की चिंता करते हैं। लेकिन धरती की धीमी होती धड़कन को अनदेखा कर देते हैं। एएमओसी वो धड़कन है और आज वह धड़कन धीरे-धीरे टूट रही है। यह सिर्फ साइंस नहीं है। यह हमारी सबसे बड़ी कहानी है और शायद हमारी सबसे बड़ी चेतावनी भी। अगर आपको यह वीडियो जानने लायक लगा हो तो याद रखिए ऐसी ही महत्वपूर्ण जानकारियां, ऐसे ही छिपे हुए खतरों की सच्चाई और हमारी दुनिया से जुड़ी ऐसी ही गहरी बातें यहीं आपको मिलेंगी। तो इस चैनल को सब्सक्राइब करें क्योंकि डर सिर्फ ज्ञान से ही जीतता है और आने वाले समय में ज्ञान ही हमारी सबसे बड़ी ढाल है।

***

Keblogger

New England heating faster than most places on Earth as melting Greenland glaciers warm Gulf of Maine- Universal Voices Collective 4-min Dec 5 report w transcript, Heating Planet blog

Fresh water from Greenland's melting glacier is slowing down the Gulf Stream, a warm oceanic current. This disruption pushes warmer water into the Gulf of Maine, making Bostonians reminisce about skating on ponds, a pastime that has become rare in southern New England due to the changing climate. READ & WATCH New England Warms Up Fast: Why the Region Is Heating More Quickly Than Most Places, transcript below[Universal Voices Collective Joined Oct 14, 2025 41 subscribers 2,895 videos]

TRANSCRIPT

***

New England's climate crisis, a rapidly warming region in a changing world. The iconic New England region, a cornerstone of American history and culture, is facing a startling reality. A recent study reveals that this beloved area is warming at an unprecedented rate, faster than most places on Earth. But what does this mean for its future, and why is it happening? According to climate researcher Steven Young, New England's temperature rise is not just rapid but accelerating. This acceleration has been particularly noticeable in the last 5 years, marking a significant shift from its relatively stable climate over the past 10,000 years. The region is now one of the fastest warming areas globally alongside the Arctic, parts of Europe, and China. The study analyzed temperature and snow cover data from 1900 to 2024, showing a staggering 2.5° C, [2.5°C × 9/5) + 32 = 36.5°F] 36.5 F average increase in New England's temperature.

This far exceeds the global average of 1.3° C, which is already causing worldwide concern. But here's where it gets controversial. The rise in temperatures is not uniform. Minimum and nighttime temperatures are increasing faster than maximum and daytime readings and winters are heating up at double the rate of other seasons. Why is this happening? The culprit seems to be changes in the Atlantic Ocean, which borders New England. 

The oceans absorb most of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases, and recent record-breaking ocean temperatures are a testament to this. In the North Atlantic near New England, an influx of cold fresh water from Greenland's melting glacier is slowing down the Gulf Stream, a warm oceanic current. This disruption pushes warmer water into the Gulf of Maine, concentrating heat along the New England coast, which then spreads inland. 

2.12

The region, once a haven for its mild climate, is now experiencing severe weather events, including devastating floods and prolonged droughts. And this is the part most people miss. The warming climate threatens New England's cultural and economic staples such as maple syrup production and winter sports. Ice hockey tournaments and ski resorts are struggling to maintain their traditions due to a lack of ice and snow. 

The personal experience of Steven Young, who lives near Boston, highlights the local impact. He reminisces about skating on ponds, a pastime that has become increasingly rare in southern New England due to the changing climate. 

This study serves as a stark reminder of the localized impacts of global climate change. New England's rapid warming is a call to action for both local communities and global policy makers. As we grapple with the consequences, the question remains, how can we adapt to and mitigate these changes while preserving the unique character of this historic region? 3.22 END

-Keblogger

Translated: India mean temp rose 0.9°C (33.62F) 2015-2024 per 3 universities; Study Smart 11-min Nov 23 report w transcript in English & Hindi, Heating Planet blog-

"There can be no greater concern than this." As sea level rises, not only will surrounding cities be at risk of drowning. But due to rising water temperature, more tropical cyclones are also coming. So, "we're facing double attacks." WATCH & READ India is Heating Up Rapidly! from India- 0.9°C Temperature Rise Explained- transcript in English, Hindi below.[Study Smart channel is providing free and quality content since 2016 for the aspirants of various govt exams, from India]

TRANSCRIPT

A multi-institutional climate study has revealed that the climate pattern in India is becoming worrying. It has been found that between 2015 and 2024 itself, the temperature of India has increased by 0.9° (33.62F). And if you see the temperature of any country increasing by around 1° in just one decade, then there can be no greater concern than this. 

Here it has been compared with the west line of the 20th century which was from 1901 to 1930 from that it was seen that the temperature of India is increasing this much. So what things have been found in this? Who has done this study and what will be its impact we will understand all this in this video. First of all let us talk about the findings. 

So this study was done by Kriya University, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and Savitribai Phule Pune University. That means three universities together did this study and some findings came out of it. First of all what? About temperature surge. That means the average rise of temperature across India that 0.9° was noticed that due to this our temperature has increased. At the same time, if we talk about warm days, then the frequency of warm days means how many such days have there been when there were warm days, then it was seen that this frequency of 5 to 10 days has increased by per decade, mostly in parts of India. 

Meaning earlier the warm days used to be less but it was seen that now an increase of 5 to 10 days per decade is being seen, that in every decade this many warm days are increasing. 

What I mean to say is that you must have seen this Sometimes it is published in the newspaper that such a day will come that this was the day in January The hottest day from today 20 years ago, 50 years This must have happened a couple of times, after that it did not happen, so such warm days keep coming. 

On the other hand, if we talk about extreme heat then the hottest days of the year it was seen that in them there has been an increase of 1.5° to 2°. Meaning, on the hottest days, the temperature reaches a peak at the very peak. So in that too, we are seeing that in the last decade, there has been an increase of between 1.5 to 2°. 

So you can see that the temperature surge in India is actual. Meaning The temperature surge here is around 1° (33.8° Fahrenheit) and the mean brought here shows that the temperature in India is increasing. You must be seeing its result, you must be thinking that does 1° make so much difference here. Keep in mind that it is the mean temperature. Meaning that it is not that everywhere it has increased by 1°. At some places it has increased a lot. At some places it may have increased a little. 

So the mean of 1° has been calculated like this. So You must have seen that many times you must be thinking that it does not get so hot before, so this time it is getting a lot hotter. 

The result is that the temperature surge is happening here at. If we talk about regional variation, then in the Himalayas, which are the Hindu Kush Himalayas, it has been seen that on the upper side, warming is accelerating and because of that, the glaciers are melting rapidly and you must be aware that if the glaciers melt, then it is a matter of great concern that means if the glaciers melt the water level in the rivers will increase, then what happens is that it causes floods and the glaciers which are said to store pure drinking water will get exhausted very quickly and because of that then in the times to come, our problems will increase and if the glaciers melt, the water level in the rivers will increase and the water goes into the sea and the sea's water The level increases and this has many effects. 

On the other hand, if we talk about the Indo-Genetic plains, then here too it has been seen that in the coastal Terai region or the entire plain area around the river Ganga, the heat stress has been seen to have increased. Especially in summer, it has been seen that the stress is gradually increasing. The heat will increase. In the surrounding areas, which are plains, then only one thing can be said from this that it is not a problem for humans but the entire biodiversity is also affected by many things. 

At the same time, if we talk about the West Coast, then here we can see that there is a dual threat which I just told you that firstly the sea level is rising due to which there is a danger of drowning of the nearby cities. Along with that, the frequency of tropical cyclones has also increased. Earlier, you must have noticed that if I talk about 15-20 years ago, tropical cyclones used to come earlier also. 

One or two such cyclones used to come in a year. But now, I see that three or four such tropical cyclones come in a year. While I was making the video, news came that some kind of tropical cyclone is forming towards the south, due to which there are chances of storms and hurricanes like this there. 

So think why is this happening? Because the temperature of the sea is also increasing. Because of this, their frequency is increasing very rapidly. On the other hand, if we talk about ocean warming, as I told you why are tropical cyclones etc. occurring? So the temperature of the Indian Ocean is increasing at 0.12° per decade. And it is being seen that this is the fastest rate globally. 

Meaning No other ocean's temperature would be increasing so rapidly across the world or then one of the fastest increasing oceans is the Indian Ocean, it is increasing by 0.12° in a decade and you will think what effect does it have so if you have ever heard the names El Nino or El Nina then all these the temperature increase of the ocean is caused due to their effect. At if we talk about marine heat waves then if it is being seen now then it is coming that in a year approximately 200 sorry 20 days this happens. But it has been projected that if the situation remains the same by 2050, then it could increase to 200 days per year, which is a matter of great concern. If we talk about what will be its impact? 

So you can see some impacts of this. For example, there is talk of compound extreme phenomena. Meaning, this is a study that Vaughan does of compound extremes. Meaning, where multiple disasters strike simultaneously, meaning that one thing is happening and it is not causing just one damage. Because of it, a chain reaction occurs. For example, if there is a lot of heat wave, due to that, there could be a drought in the coming time. Meaning, there could be a drought. 

The heat wave was so severe that there was no rain, crops were damaged, and a drought struck. So, it's not just the heat wave that's bothering you. The drought is also bothering you. So, these disasters are happening simultaneously. 

As I said, if the sea level rises, not only will the surrounding cities be at risk of drowning. But due to the rising sea temperature, tropical cyclones are also coming. So, because of that, we're facing double attacks. These things are happening simultaneously, and the impact is that the disaster response teams are overloaded. They're under additional pressure. They are facing not just one but many things and because of this, there is a failure in agriculture and water supply. So all these things have such an impact. 

At the same time, if we talk about agricultural distress then the increasing temperature also affects our crop yield, which can be said to be the production. Crop yield is affected by this. If it affects heat sensitive crops like wheat, then it has a huge impact. If you understand that during monsoon season, there is no rain at all. There is heat as well. If there is a drought, then your paddy crop is not growing at all or it is not growing properly. And the rain that is happening at such a time when the paddy crop is standing or the wheat crop is standing. 

The rain is becoming unseasonal because the climate is changing. So the standing crop is getting spoiled. So all these have a huge impact. And it is being told that the change that is coming in the South West Monsoon which happens from June to September in its rainfall distribution directly impacts it. The Kharif crop, as I just told you, is getting damaged due to untimely rains. the crops are not getting damaged when they should be, and it is raining when they shouldn't be. Because of this, the crops will get damaged, and you know what impact it will have if the crops get damaged in an agricultural country like India. 

Our country's population is so high that if the crops we have here are not available in sufficient quantity, then paying for them becomes very expensive. If we further discuss some economic and health risks like labor productivity. Our economic health, our economic risk, comes from agriculture itself. It also comes from labor productivity. If extreme heat conditions arise then the working hours have to be reduced. 

Especially in the construction and farming sectors, if our working hours are reduced then obviously productivity will be affected and that too will be reduced. If productivity is affected then our GDP will be impacted and our economy will be directly hit. At if we talk about health risks, when such long hot days are occurring and the number of hot days is increasing, then you will know that the breeding season of vector borne diseases like dengue and malaria which are spread by mosquitoes, their time increases. 

Meaning earlier that time used to be shorter. But now the time is getting longer and the hotter days are increasing and that is increasing the time, 

So for vector-borne diseases as well, the opportunity increases here, the breeding season increases and because of that, more and more diseases spread and as the disease spreads, people will fall sick, so who will be affected? It will be on the country, so this is the entire impact, so you can understand that a temperature rise of just 1 degree is not a minor thing, and because of this not just one thing is getting affected, but it creates a chain reaction, one thing affecting another, and the second affecting the third. If we talk about it, can a session be held on this? 

So, first of all, we need to look at climate adaptation. Like, COP 30 has just happened. Many things are being done to slow down the climate, meaning the global warming, so that a rapid increase of 1 degree in temperature in a decade is a big deal. So, we can slow it down. So, for that, it should be said that some region-specific strategy will have to be looked at. This means that it is not possible to create a single strategy and apply it to the entire world. That is not possible. 

And in India too, it is not the case that you can create a single strategy and apply it to the entire country. This is not possible because India is a big country. The climate here is different for each state, each region, so we will have to work accordingly. We will have to develop region-specific strategies. We will also need to install more early warning systems, to predict how much the heat may increase in the coming time. What are the chances of cyclones? What are the chances of heavy rain? Early warning systems should be installed for all these things as well, and this should be expanded. We should have more satellites. Although already launched, their number should be increased to increase accuracy. That is where we have to focus the most on renewable energy so that the coal based energy that we are producing, even now 70 to 75% of our energy demand is met through coal. We have to reduce this. Meaning we should burn less coal and focus more than possible. No, we should focus on renewable energy, that is, solar or wind power. 

We should also focus on nuclear power. So that the temperature increase due to burning of our coal and such fossil fuels can be reduced and our net zero target of 2070 will also be achieved. All this has to be done and it is not only the responsibility of the government to do it. It is also the responsibility of the general public to be aware of this and to understand how whatever work we are doing is affecting our temperature. The rest of this video ends here. If you liked this video, found it informative then please like it. Subscribe to the channel for more important videos like this. See you in the next video

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In Hindi

एक मल्टी इंस्टीिट्यूशनल क्लाइमेट स्टडी में यह सामने आया है कि इंडिया में जो क्लाइमेट का पैटर्न है वह कंसर्निंग होता जा रहा है। यह पता चला है कि 2015 से 2024 के बीच में ही जो इंडिया का टेंपरेचर है वो 0.9° से बढ़ गया है। और किसी भी देश में अगर टेंपरेचर अगर आप देखें केवल एक डिकेड में 1° के आसपास ऐसा बढ़ रहा है तो इससे बड़ा कंसर्न और कुछ नहीं हो सकता है। यहां पर इसको कंपेयर किया गया है 20थ सेंचुरी की वेस्ट लाइन से जो कि 1901 से 1930 की थी उससे देखा गया कि इंडिया का टेंपरेचर इतना बढ़ रहा है। तो इसमें क्या-क्या चीजें फाइंड करी गई हैं? किसने इसको स्टडी को किया है और इसके क्या इंपैक्ट निकलेंगे सब कुछ हम इस वीडियो में समझते हैं। सबसे पहले हम बात करते हैं की फाइंडिंग्स की। तो ये जो स्टडी है इसको किया गया था क्रिया यूनिवर्सिटी, इंडियन इंस्टट्यूट ऑफ ट्रॉपिकल मेटोलॉजी और सावित्रीबाई फुले पुणे यूनिवर्सिटी के द्वारा। मतलब तीन यूनिवर्सिटीज ने मिलकर के इस स्टडी को किया और इसमें कुछ फाइंडिंग्स निकली। सबसे पहला क्या? टेंपरेचर सर्ज का। मतलब जो एवरेज राइज है टेंपरेचर का अक्रॉस इंडिया वो 0.9° नोटिस किया गया कि इतने से जो हमारा टेंपरेचर है वो इनक्रीस हुआ है। वहीं पे अगर हम बात करें वार्म डज़ की तो वार्म डज़ की जो फ्रीक्वेंसी है कि मतलब कितने ऐसे ऐसे दिन आए जब वार्म डज़ रहे तो उसमें यह देखा गया कि जो ये इन फ्रीक्वेंसी है 5 से 10 दिन पर डिकेड के हिसाब से इनक्रीस हुई है ज्यादातर इंडिया के पार्ट्स में। मतलब पहले जो वार्म डेज रहा करते थे कम रहा करते थे लेकिन ये देखा गया कि पर डिकेड इनमें अब 5 से 10 दिन का इनक्रीस देखने को मिल रहा है कि हर एक दशक में इतने दिन ऐसे वार्म के बढ़ जा रहे हैं। मतलब ऐसा कहने का है आपने ऐसा देखा होगा कभी-कभी न्यूज़पेपर में निकलता है कि ऐसा एक के आएगा कि जनवरी में यह दिन रहा सबसे गर्म दिन आज से 20 साल पहले 50 साल पहले ऐसा हुआ हुआ होगा एक आध बार उसके बाद नहीं हुआ तो ऐसे वार्म डे ऐसे निकल के आते हैं। वहीं पे अगर हम एक्सट्रीम हेट की बात करें तो जो हॉटेस्ट डज़ हैं वो ईयर के वो देखा गया कि उनमें 1.5° से 2° जो है उसका इनक्रीस देखने को मिला है। मतलब जो सबसे ज्यादा गर्म दिन रहते हैं टेंपरेचर बहुत एकदम पीक करता है। तो उसमें भी हमको देखने को मिल रहा है कि पिछले दशक में वह इनक्रीस हो चुका है 1ढ़ से 2° के बीच में। तो ये आप देख पा रहे हैं कि इंडिया का जो टेंपरेचर सर्ज है वो एक्चुअल है। मतलब यहां पे टेंपरेचर सर्च 1° के आसपास का जो मीन यहां पे लाया गया है ये दिखाता है कि भारत में जो टेंपरेचर है वो बढ़ रहा है। उसका नतीजा आप देखते होंगे 1° आप सोचते होंगे कि क्या यहां पे इतना फर्क डालता है। ध्यान रखिए मीन टेंपरेचर है। मतलब कि ये ऐसा नहीं कि सब जगह 1° बढ़ा है। कहीं बहुत ज़्यादा बढ़ा है। कहीं पे थोड़ा बढ़ा होगा। तो ऐसे मीन निकाला गया है 1° का। तो आपने ऐसा देखा होगा कि कई बार आप सोचते होंगे कि इतना गर्मी पहले नहीं पड़ती इस बार तो कुछ ज्यादा ही गर्मी पड़ रही है। उसका नतीजा यही है कि टेंपरेचर सर्ज यहां पे हो रहा है। अगर हम बात करें रीजनल वेरिएशन की तो जो हिमालयज़ हैं जो हिंदू कुश के हिमालयज़ हैं उसमें देखने को मिला है कि उन वह जो ऊपर का जो साइड है वहां पर वार्मिंग जो है एक्सीलरेट हो रही है और उसकी वजह से जो ग्लेशियर्स हैं वह रैपिडली मेल्ट हो रहे हैं और आपको पता होगा ग्लेशियर्स अगर मेल्ट होंगे तो यह बहुत ही चिंताजनक बात है कि मतलब ग्लेशियर मेल्ट होंगे नदियों में पानी बढ़ेगा तो उससे होता क्या है बाढ़ आती है और जो ग्लेशियर्स को कहा जाता है ना कि जो पीने लायक जो शुद्ध पानी है उसका स्टोरेज है वह जल्दी-जल्दी खत्म होंगे और उसकी वजह से फिर आने वाले समय में हमें दिक्कत बढ़ती है और ग्लेशियर्स अगर मेल्ट होंगे नदियों में पानी बढ़ेगा पानी जाकर समुद्र में मिलता है समुद्र का जो लेवल है वह इनक्रीस होता है तो इससे बहुत सारे जो इफेक्ट है वो आते हैं। वहीं पर अगर हम इंडोगेंगेटिक प्लेेंस की बात करें तो यहां पर भी देखने को मिला जो जो तटीय मतलब जो तराई क्षेत्र आता है या फिर जो गंगा नदी के आसपास का जो पूरा मैदानी इलाका है वहां पर हीट जो स्ट्रेस है वो देखने को मिला है कि वो इनक्रीस हुआ है। खासतौर पे समर में यहां पे देखा गया है कि वो जो स्ट्रेस है वो धीरे-धीरे बढ़ता ही जा रहा है। जो गर्मी है वो बढ़ेगी। आसपास के इलाकों में जो मैदानी इलाके हैं तो उससे सिर्फ एक कह सकते हैं इंसानों को दिक्कत नहीं बल्कि बहुत सारी चीजें से पूरा जो बायोडायवर्सिटी है वो भी प्रभावित होती है। वहीं पे अगर हम वेस्ट कोस्ट की बात करें तो यहां पे देखने को मिल रहा है कि जो ड्यूल थ्रेट है जो मैंने अभी आपको कहा कि एक तो सी लेवल बढ़ रहा है जिसकी वजह से आसपास के जो सिटीज हैं वो उनके डूबने का खतरा उत्पन्न होता है। उसके साथ-साथ जो ट्रॉपिकल जो साइक्लोनस हैं उनकी फ्रीक्वेंसी में भी इनक्रीस हुआ है। पहले आपने देखा होगा कि मैं आज से अगर 15 20 साल पहले की बात करूं तो ट्रॉपिकल साइक्लोनस पहले भी आते थे। साल भर में एक आध या एक दो ऐसे आ जाते थे। लेकिन अभी तो मैं देखता हूं कि साल भर में तीनचार ऐसे ट्रॉपिकल साइक्लोनस आते हैं। जब मैं वीडियो बना रहा हूं अभी भी एक न्यूज़ आई थी कि साउथ की तरफ ऐसा कुछ ट्रॉपिकल साइक्लोन सा बन रहा है जिसको जिसकी वजह से वहां पे आंधी तूफान इस तरह के आने की संभावनाएं हैं। तो ये सोचिए ये हो क्यों रहा है? क्योंकि जो समुद्र का टेंपरेचर है वह भी बढ़ रहा है। इसकी वजह से इनकी फ्रीक्वेंसी में बहुत तेजी से बढ़ोतरी देखने को मिल रही है। वहीं पे अगर हम बात करें ओशियन वार्मिंग की तो जैसा मैंने आपको बताया कि ट्रॉपिकल साइक्लोनस वगैरह क्यों आ रहे हैं? तो जो इंडियन ओशियन है उसका जो टेंपरेचर है वो 0.12° पर डिकेड के हिसाब से बढ़ रहा है। और यह देखा जा रहा है कि फास्टेस्ट रेट है ग्लोबली। मतलब पूरे दुनिया भर में इतनी तेजी से और कोई ओशियन का टेंपरेचर नहीं बढ़ रहा होगा या फिर जो सबसे तेजी से बढ़ रहा उनमें से एक इंडियन ओशियन है 0.12° पर डिकेड से बढ़ रहा है और आप सोचेंगे इसका क्या इफेक्ट पड़ता है तो आपने कभी अलनीनो या फिर अलनीना ये सब अगर नाम सुने होंगे तो ये सब जो टेंपरेचर बढ़ता है समुद्र का इनके इफेक्ट की वजह से उत्पन्न होते हैं। वहीं पे अगर हम मरीन हीट वेव्स की बात करें तो अभी अगर देखा जा रहा है तो वह आ रहा है कि 1 साल में तकरीबन 200 सॉरी 20 दिन ऐसा होता है। लेकिन ये प्रोजेक्ट किया गया है कि 2050 तक अगर स्थिति ऐसे ही बनी रही तो ये 200 डेज पर ईयर तक ये बढ़ सकता है जो कि बहुत चिंताजनक बात है। अगर हम बात करें इसका इंपैक्ट क्या होगा? तो इसके कुछ इंपैक्ट आप देख सकते हैं। जैसे कंपाउंड एक्सट्रीम फिनोमिना की बात हो रही है। मतलब ये स्टडी है वॉन करती है कंपाउंड एक्सट्रीम्स की। मतलब जहां पर मल्टीपल जो डिजास्टर्स हैं वो स्ट्राइक करते हैं साइमलटेनियसली मतलब कि एक चीज हो रही है उससे सिर्फ एक नुकसान नहीं हो रहा। उसकी वजह से एक चैन रिएक्शन आता है। जैसे अगर हीट वेव बहुत ज्यादा हो रही है उसकी वजह से आने वाले समय में ड्रॉट हो सकता है। मतलब सूखा पड़ सकता है। हीट वेव इतनी हुई बारिश हुई नहीं, फसलें खराब हो गई, सूखा पड़ गया। तो आपको सिर्फ हीट वेव ही परेशान नहीं कर रही है। सूखा भी परेशान कर रहा है। तो ऐसे साइमलटेनियसली ऐसे डिजास्टर्स हो रहे हैं। जैसा मैंने कहा कि अगर जो सी लेवल है वो राइज़ होगा तो सिर्फ आसपास के सिटीज को उनके डूबने का खतरा नहीं है। बल्कि समुद्र का टेंपरेचर बढ़ने की वजह से जो ट्रॉपिकल साइक्लोनस है वो भी आ रहे हैं। तो उसकी वजह से डबल ऐसा फेस करना पड़ रहा है अटैक। वो साथ-साथ ही चीजें हो रही हैं और इसका इंपैक्ट यह होता है कि जो डिजास्टर रिस्पांस टीम्स हैं वह ओवरलोड होती हैं। उनके ऊपर अतिरिक्त प्रेशर पड़ रहा है। एक ही नहीं बल्कि कई सारी चीजों को उनको झेलना पड़ रहा है और इसकी वजह से जो एग्रीकल्चर है और जो वाटर सप्लाई है उसमें फेलियर देखने को मिलता है। तो ये सारी चीजें ऐसे इंपैक्ट करती हैं। वहीं पे अगर हम एग्रीकल्चर डिस्ट्रेस की बात करें तो जो बढ़ता हुआ टेंपरेचर है वह हमारी जो फसल की जो कह सकते हैं यील्ड है जो उपज है उस पे भी इफेक्ट डालती हैं। क्रॉप ईल्ड जो है उससे अफेक्ट होती है। अगर वह हीट सेंसिटिव क्रॉप्स जैसे रबी की फसल हो गई जैसे गेहूं हो गया बहुत असर डालती हैं। अगर यह समझिए कि जैसे बहुत मानसून के समय बारिश हो ही नहीं रही। वहां भी गर्मी पड़ रही है। सूखा पड़ रहा है तो आपके जो जो धान की फसल है वो हो ही नहीं रही है या फिर सही नहीं हो रही। और ऐसे समय में जो बारिश हो जा रही है कि जब धान की फसल खड़ी है या फिर गेहूं की फसल खड़ी है। बारिश बेमोसम हो जा रही है क्योंकि क्लाइमेट चेंज हो रहा है। तो खड़ी फसल खराब हो जा रही है। तो ये सब बहुत इफ़ेक्ट करते हैं। और यह बता रहे हैं कि जो चेंज आ रहा है जो साउथ वेस्ट मानसून है जून से सितेंंबर तक होता है उसके रेनफॉल डिस्ट्रीब्यूशन में वो डायरेक्टली इंपैक्ट करता है। जो खरीफ की फसल है जैसा मैंने अभी आपको बताया कि बेमोस बरसात होने की वजह से जो फसलें खराब जब होनी चाहिए तब हो नहीं रही है और जब नहीं होनी चाहिए तब बारिश हो रही है। इसकी वजह से जो फसल है वो खराब होगी और आपको पता है कि अगर फसल खराब होगी भारत जैसे कृषि प्रधान देश में तो उसका इंपैक्ट क्या पड़ेगा? हमारे देश की जनसंख्या इतनी ज्यादा है कि अगर हमारे यहां पे जो फसल है वह पर्याप्त मात्रा में नहीं होगी तो उसका भुगतान बहुत महंगा पड़ता है। अगर हम आगे बात करें कुछ इकोनॉमिक और हेल्थ रिस्क जैसा लेबर प्रोडक्टिविटी को लेकर के है। इकोनॉमिक हेल्थ जो हमारी इकोनॉमिक जो रिस्क है वह हमारा एग्रीकल्चर से तो आता ही आता है। लेबर प्रोडक्टिविटी से भी आता है। अगर एक्सट्रीम हेट की कंडीशन पैदा होती है तो काम करने के जो घंटे हैं वह कम करने पड़ते हैं। खासतौर पे जो कंस्ट्रक्शन है, फार्मिंग सेक्टर्स हैं, अगर काम करने के घंटे हमारे कम होंगे तो जाहिर सी बात है प्रोडक्टिविटी पे असर पड़ेगा वह भी कम होगी। प्रोडक्टिविटी पे असर पड़ेगा तो हमारी जीडीपी पे इंपैक्ट पड़ेगा तो सीधे-सीधे इकॉनमी हमारी हिट होती है। वहीं पे अगर हम हेल्थ रिस्क की बात करें तो जब लंबे गर्म दिन ऐसे हो रहे हैं और गर्म दिन की संख्या बढ़ रही है तो आपको पता होगा इससे जो ब्रीडिंग सीजन है वो जो वेक्टर बोर्न डिजीज होती हैं जिसमें डेंगू मलेरिया जो मच्छरों के द्वारा फैलती हैं उनका जो समय है वह बढ़ जाता है। मतलब पहले वो समय एक शॉर्टर होता था। लेकिन अब लंबा जो समय है ज्यादा जो गर्म दिन है वो ज्यादा हो रहे हैं उससे समय बढ़ रहा है तो जो वेक्टर्न बोर्न डिजीज हैं उनके लिए भी यहां पे मौका बढ़ता है जो प्रोडक्ट जो ब्रीडिंग सीजन है वो बढ़ता है तो उसकी वजह से ज्यादा से ज्यादा बीमारियां फैलती हैं और बीमारी फैलेगी लोग बीमार पड़ेंगे तो असर किसके ऊपर होगा देश के ऊपर होगा तो ये सारी इंपैक्ट है तो आप ये समझ सकते हैं सिर्फ टेंपरेचर राइज होना 1 डिग्री का मामूली सी बात नहीं है और इसकी वजह से सिर्फ एक चीज प्रभावित नहीं हो रही बल्कि एक चेन रिएक्शन क्रिएट करता है एक से दूसरी चीज दूसरे से तीसरी चीज प्रभावित होती है। वहीं पे हम बात करें इसका क्या सशन निकल सकता है? तो सबसे पहले हमें क्लाइमेट अडॉप्शन को देखना होगा। जैसे अभी सीओपी 30 वगैरह हुआ है। बहुत सारी चीजें करी जा रही हैं कि हम जो क्लाइमेट है उसको जो मतलब जो धरती गर्म हो रही है उसको धीरे कर सकें कि जो इतनी तेजी से एक डिकेड में 1 डिग्री टेंपरेचर बढ़ जाना बहुत बड़ी बात है। उसको हम स्लो कर सकें। तो उसके लिए बताया जाए कि कुछ ऐसा जो रीजन स्पेसिफिक स्ट्रेटजी देखनी होगी। मतलब ऐसा नहीं हो सकता कि एक स्ट्रेटजी बना दी जाए पूरे विश्व पे लागू हो जाए। ऐसा तो होता नहीं। और इंडिया में भी ऐसा नहीं है कि आप एक स्ट्रेटजी बना दीजिए पूरे इंडिया पे लागू कर दीजिए। नहीं हो सकता क्योंकि इंडिया बड़ा देश है। यहां पे जो जलवायु है हर एक प्रदेश की हर एक मतलब रीजंस की अलग-अलग है। तो उस हिसाब से हमें इस पे काम करना होगा। जो रीजन स्पेसिफिक स्ट्रेटजीज़ हैं उनको लाना होगा। वहीं पे हमें अर्ली वार्निंग सिस्टम्स भी और लगाने होंगे। जिससे पता चल सके कि आने वाले समय में जो गर्मी है वो कितनी बढ़ सकती है। जो साइक्लोनस हैं उनके आने की संभावनाएं क्या हैं? बेमोस बारिश होने की संभावनाएं क्या हैं? वो सारी चीजों के लिए भी अर्ली वार्निंग सिस्टम लगाने जाने चाहिए और इसको बढ़ाना चाहिए। ऐसे हमारे पास और सेटेलाइट्स होने चाहिए। हालांकि छोड़े जा रहे हैं और इनकी संख्या बढ़ानी चाहिए ताकि एक्यूरेसी इसमें बढ़ सके। वहीं पे सबसे ज्यादा फोकस तो हमें रिन्यूएबल एनर्जी पे करना होगा कि हमें जो अपना जो कोल जो बेस्ड हम एनर्जी निकाल रहे हैं अभी भी जो कोयला है उसके माध्यम से हमारा 70 टू 75% जो एनर्जी डिमांड है वो पूरा होता है। इसको हमें कम करना होगा। मतलब कोयला कम से कम हम जलाएं और ज्यादा से ज्यादा फोकस करें। नहीं रिन्यूएबल एनर्जी पे मतलब सोलर या विंड पावर पे हम फोकस करें। न्यूक्लियर पावर पे भी फोकस करें। जिससे जो हमारा जो कोयला और इस तरह के जो फॉसिल फ्यूल्स हैं जिनको जलाया जा रहा है उसकी वजह से टेंपरेचर इंक्रीस हो रहा है वो कम हो और जो हमारा नेट जीरो का टारगेट है 2070 का वो भी अचीव हो पाएगा। यह सब करना होगा और यह सिर्फ सरकार की ही जिम्मेदारी नहीं बनती है करने की। यह आम जनता की जिम्मेदारी भी ज्यादा बनती है कि इसके प्रति अवेयर रहें और इसके प्रति सोें कि हम जो भी काम कर रहे हैं उससे जो हमारा टेंपरेचर है वह कैसे प्रभावित हो रहा है। बाकी यह वीडियो यहीं तक है। आपको यह वीडियो अच्छी लगी, इनफेटिव लगी तो लाइक करिए। इस तरह की और इंपोर्टेंट वीडियोस के लिए चैनल को सब्सक्राइब करिए। मिलते हैं अगले वीडियो में।

***KEblogger

Can Southeast Asia cope with record-breaking storms? Inside Story Al Jazeera English Dec 8 27 min video w transcript, Heating Planet blog

In the region's worst storm season on record, thousands have died or are missing across Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Sri Lanka. Now another storm is forming in the Philippine Sea. While governments promise to rebuild, it's not clear how they can afford to do so as storm seasons get worse. Plus, the UN slashed its 2026 budget for natural disasters by half. Nations are on their own, storm after storm. READ & WATCH Can Southeast Asia cope with record-breaking storms?  transcript follows [Al Jazeera English Dec 8]

TRANSCRIPT

2,000 dead and hundreds missing in one of the worst storm seasons in Southeast Asia's recorded history. Cyclones, typhoons, and back-to-back tropical storms are causing floods and landslides so large some areas may never recover. So, how can countries continue to face this escalating threat? And can they afford to keep rebuilding? This is inside story. 

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Hello and welcome to the program. I'm Darin Abuga. Southeast Asia is facing one of its worst storm seasons on record. Thousands of people have died or are missing across Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Sri Lanka. And another storm is currently forming in the Philippine Sea. Central Vietnam saw the second highest known total of 24-hour rainfall this year. And while governments are promising to rebuild, it's not clear how they can afford to do so every year as the storm seasons get worse. 

At the same time, the UN announced on Sunday that it slashed its 2026 budget for response to war and natural disasters by half. These countries are increasingly on their own, left to try to put cities and lives back together, storm after storm. So, how are these storms changing lives and livelihoods? And what does the future of flood recovery look like across Southeast Asia? We'll put those questions to our guests in a moment. First, this report from Image and Kimber. 

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This Indonesian man is one of the thousands of victims of flooding across South Asia. *I was swept away by the current. Then all the houses collapsed from above. My neck was trapped. Then my house collapsed and was swept under.* Relentless rain has caused floods and landslides across Indonesia and in Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Malaysia.

Hundreds of people have died. Hundreds more are missing. Thousands have lost their homes and millions have been affected. But this was not the first major storm to hit Asia this year. From June, major flooding in Pakistan killed more than a thousand people and affected nearly 6 million. A super typhoon hit the Philippines, China, Vietnam, and Lao in September. In October, typhoon Kalmagi battered the Philippines and Vietnam again, as well as Cambodia. And that's just to name a few. 

The collective cost of the cleanup is estimated in the billions. Indonesia alone says it will be $3 billion. And for many of the countries hit, that is becoming an annual unsustainable burden. The World Bank estimates that Pakistan, which is regularly hit with both worsening droughts and flooding, needs around $348 billion to address its climate challenges by 2030. 

But global aid is dramatically reduced. The US and Europe have cut foreign aid instead increasing defense spending and the UN emergency relief has had to cut its budget in half for 2026. 

*We are overstretched, underfunded and under attack. Only 20% of our appeals are supported and we drive the ambulance towards the fire on your behalf. But we are also now being asked to put the fire out. And there is not enough water in the tank.* 

At the UN climate summit in Brazil last month, governments agreed to give around 1.3 trillion a year up to 2035 to assist low-income countries to adapt to the changing climate and avert disaster as well as respond to it. But while billions have been promised in the past, only a trickle of what was promised has arrived.

*Developed countries who are responsible for the climate crisis, they are not providing money. And without climate finance, these polluters are making billions of dollars every day. And we need to make them pay and also fill the fund which is the loss and damage fund.*

They're also not living up to their promises to reduce one of the major root causes of climate change, carbon emissions. So the world continues to barrel into a climate crisis, leaving those affected the most to suffer alone. Imaging Kimber Alazer inside story. 

Let's now bring in our guest. Joining us from Paris is Alexander Bour who's an environmental economist and CEO of Sibola Partners. In New Delhi, Sahar Raheda is a program officer for the climate change program at the center for science and environment. And in Hong Kong, Benjamin Horton is a dean of the school of energy and environment and professor of earth science at City University of Hong Kong. Welcome to you all. Thanks so much for your time. Benjamin Horton, we'll start with you in Hong Kong. So, as we know, this year's storms and floods have been described as record-breaking when it comes to their intensity as well as their scale. When you look at these events, how unusual are they compared to past events? And is it realistic to expect such extremes to become the new normal for future planning? 

They're very unusual, but they're not unsurprising. We could have predicted quite easily that this would be a record-breaking year because you have record-breaking temperatures driven by climate change that produces more water vapor in the atmosphere. So when you get a naturally wet season in the monsoons, they are now more intense. They're more frequent. They occur in regions that aren't usually prepared for such disasters. 

And that's why we see such tragedies in the loss of lives and livelihoods around many many developing countries. Sah disasters often they hit the poorest people the hardest right the ordinary also the ordinary person. 

What are the social and economic impacts that you're seeing on the poor, on informal workers, on rural communities that are perhaps not even reported in the media? 

That's a fair question to ask. I think we've reached the point where it's well documented that there are both economic, social, non-economic and all kinds of losses and damages basically that come about because of climate worsened disasters. I think these include first of all your basic damage to infrastructure and property. People's entire houses you know get wiped out in a matter of minutes especially when it's things like flooding. apart from that though you also have the loss of life livestock extensive crop damage hectares and hectares of land. 

The extreme flooding that the northern state of Punjab in India saw just earlier this year led to extensive crop damage in it happened during a time when Paddy and you know rice crops were supposed to be at their most sensitive. So you see if depending on what kind of livelihood people are engaged in and of course there's devastating death toll itself and a loss of life and just the amount of time for recovery and and rebuilding infrastructure and and the amount of time that it takes for children to go back to school for people to kind of function in any kind of a normal again. 

All of these don't necessarily get quantified easily but also you know are included in the span of both economic non-economic damages due to disasters. 

Okay, let's stick with that point you make about quantifying and bring in Alexand because you say Alex al Alexand traditional estimates of disaster damage often focus on insured and replaceable assets. So when you look at countries in South and Southeast Asia, is that then a misleading way of of of trying to assess just how much the damage has cost? 

Well, it's not a misleading way, but it's an insufficient way to assess these costs. Indeed, having insurance schemes is useful to cover to recover. but unfortunately, it's first for the least developed countries very unusual to have this insurance scheme in place. It's not easy because it's not affordable. 

So the the fact is that we see that globally only 40% of all the natural assets are and and not only assets, all the assets in total that are hit by extreme events are insured. So it there is a missing huge missing part 60% and this indeed percentage it's much much higher in emerging or developing countries. 

So this is where the problem is and the only way to to find another mean to to cover and to recover is by having cooperation mechanism at the international level which are as you were saying in introduction not easy the funds between countries and we had recently the cup in BM where the numbers are not there in order for the the people that are the most vulnerable  to be covered by this cost. So this is really problematic and they are left on their own. 

So then just a followup for you Alexon, how should we rethink economic assessments to better to be able to capture these long-term losses perhaps in a more efficient way? 

Well, I think all the challenges are always to continue first to really to assess all the the cost of adaptation versus the cost of inaction. That's what we do in detail. So basically showing that it's important to invest in inflammatory adaptation to prevent some of the hazards that are occurring. And the other thing is to find some mechanism like loss and damages fund that is under discussion at the international level in order to to rebuild when some assets are destroyed or or cultures agricultures and so on. 

So this is really a challenge. At the international level again the discussion is pretty difficult because there was the expectation to have 1.3 trillion of US dollar available and we are only at 300 billion. So you see the huge gap between what is not even available, what the data promises and these numbers, and what is needed. 

Okay. Benjamin basically that's really the challenge and this is then you can go into details country by country and this is also just maybe a last word of of the work is to be able indeed to come with this assessment in order to to to have a convincing calculation of the needs from all these countries that have no insurance today. 

Okay, understood. Benjamin in terms of adaptation, is there a point, do you think, where adaptation may no longer be enough where migration in fact becomes the only viable option for some regions? Are we headed in that direction? 

Well, unfortunately, yes. you know the scientific community have been predicting the impacts of increasing greenhouse gas emissions on temperatures which cause droughts and wildfires on moisture vapor which causes flooding and landslides and typhoons on increasing heat raising sea levels. So at some point if we don't solve the problem and the problem is our emissions of greenhouse gases the increases in temperature going to be too great that the storms that people receive will be too intense and they'll be too frequent that it will cause so many problems. 

That's why we have this concept of planetary boundaries which was part of the COP meeting in Paris in 1995 going through to 2015 where we stated that you couldn't go beyond the planetary boundary of 1.5°C warming above pre-industrial levels and we are at that boundary right now. So what we should be doing is we should be doubling down on solving the problems with the solutions that we have. Solar energy now is the cheapest form of energy that we have ever had. It's cheaper than coal, natural gas and oil. We have the solutions readily available to solve this problem. 

But if we do not and we keep on putting greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, our adaptations everywhere in the world, developed and developing countries, rich and poor, global north, global south, will not be sufficient and then we'll have some significant problems and one of them as you stated is human migration. So in the topic that I study, I study sea level rise. So if you increase atmospheric temperatures, you increase ocean temperatures, your land-based ice that Greenland and Antarctica melt. What can you do to stop that? 

Well, if you have slow rates of sea level rise, you can protect your shoreline. You can live with sea level. With high rates of sea level rise, people have to migrate because they lose their place that they live along our coastlines. We are a coastal society. Five of our 10 largest cities on planet earth are on coastal regions, right? So it's a really significant problem. you have to solve the issue which is greenhouse gases and then you have to think about right how do we adapt because climate change is here now. So it is a new normal but it's always going to get worse. I mean so people think about these record-breaking storms that we're having in 2025. Well, this time next year they will be worse and in 2027 they'll be worse than that and in 2028 and 2030 and 2040 and 2050 until we solve the problem. Sah that's quite a warning, right? I mean what are you seeing in in countries in Asia when it comes to climatedriven displacement or or internal migration amongst communities that are repeatedly hit by floods? are we seeing these signs of communities leaving? well yeah in certain parts of the world definitely but if I were to speak to just South Asia for a moment more than even I think climate Yeah. more than even climate migration per se or something that can be termed climate migration. What we're seeing is a people really battered year after year just like Melanin just pointed out and a government that is trying to do its best to support these people in adapting and post- disaster needs. I think it's it's it while there there is a loss of life and there is destruction of property and the and the span of effects like we just said and migration is probably just around the corner at larger scales. What's more important is to realize that solar might be the cheapest but the barriers in the international financial system make it more expensive for certain countries to access it at scale still or you know the IMF style austerity or like we're looking at countries ridden by sovereign debt. So already mounting fiscal pressures for governments to then try and prioritize only climate action or development and even ending up at a question of development versus climate is a problem in and of itself. So yeah, I think I'd just like to stop there. Okay. Alexand when when populations are forced to relocate due to these repeated disasters that we're discussing, how is this accounted for economically? Do the current models that are in place capture these long-term damages on populations? Well, it's starting and this is something where we we lack of data. We don't have many data on that. I mean we don't have data in terms of how many you know in terms of how many people we have to migr migrate and we don't have even less information about how costly this will be. But the first studies are are coming out with the organization for migration international organization for migration. So this is the type of work that and will enable to see the the costs of of this you know in terms of know loss of the whole entire countries. What we see is are already some agreements between countries. We see that in the Pacific between for instance the Kiribath and the Fijes where you have approximately 100,000 inhabitants in the Kiribath that will have to move the the highest point in the Kiribath in the Pacific is 2 m high. So you can imagine how at risk they are and there is already an agreement with the Fiji so that it's 100,000 people will be able to move to resettle in the Fiji. But this is the the one of the examples but when we'll have more migration such type of agreements and and hence also such type of financial agreements will indeed be on the table. we are lacking of data so far about that. definitely this is one of the key challenges for research on climate economics in the future. And Benjamin, from the from the scientific point of view, what kinds of infrastructures or settlement planning changes could reduce vulnerability? and and are these easy to implement in areas or in countries that may have limited resources? Well, I think it again, I'm bound to say this because I'm a scientist, but it starts off with the science. If you don't know what the problem is, then how can you think about adaptations and solutions? So I need do believe that there needs to be investment in the science to try and understand where the impacts will be greatest. And what we see with the latest climate models is that climate impacts are happening in places that don't normally experience it or they're happening in places at times of years that are unexpected. Or once they've had one storm of the century, well, they find out two weeks later it's another storm of the century. When they see a typhoon at a low category offshore, they think they're safe. And then lo and behold, 24 hours later, it's a cat 5 hurricane barreling down on Jamaica at unprecedented wind velocities, storm surges, and rainfall. So, you do need that. And then once you've got that information, you try and think about adaptation. And yes, it will cost a lot of money to protect the world. But if you make sure that you target your funding in the most vulnerable communities, there are success stories. success stories that use mother nature to protect your region. So again, on sea level rise, yes, we can always think that we're going to turn ourselves into a new Netherlands with large tidal barages, but mother earth has been protecting coastlines for millions of years with oysters and coral reefs and mangroves. These are the natural protectors that have commonly been removed for economic benefit when they don't truly understand. But a mangrove, for example, has a variety of benefits. It protects the shoreline. It creates a biodiversity hotspot. The roots within a mangrove filter water so you have cleaner drinking water supplies. And then also, paradoxically, these mangroves store carbon. So they actually provide the solution. The same can be said of flood planes for riverine flooding or tropical rainforest. Mother nature does provide our solutions and therefore we can think about that and make sure we don't build in the most vulnerable areas. So a flood plane by its name is a plane where flood waters dissipate. Why do we build in a flood plane? Especially now when we know that our defenses of the 20th and early 21st century are not sufficient for 2025 and they won't be sufficient in 2030 and certainly not in 2040. This is the one of the most urgent problems. Got it. Sahar., from the perspective if we look at social justice and and equity for a moment, how do you think climate adaptation strategies can be designed to support resilience as well as environmental justice? What needs to be done?, I think to answer that question, there's two ends of the spectrum that I'd like to like look at it from. Right? We have one at the multilateral level., the world's just coming out of COP 30. a really kind of happening cop for the first time in an Amazonian city in BM in Brazil. and it was supposed to be a COP where adaptation was. and you know one of the things that came out just around the time that COP began this year was that the gap in what are the adaptation needs for developing countries among which are the most vulnerable countries in the world and between what is actually coming in is is you know between like 310 or 365 billion would be the needs versus about 26 billion that has actually come in just for adaptation. So the gap for adaptation financing has historically been really high and it continues to be so. And so the ask at the multilateral level from countries of the global south or developing countries has long been to provide you know adequate additional and highly concession where required and more of grants space finance not loans for adaptation particularly because compared to mitigation or emission reductions there's even lesser of a business case for the lack of a better word when it comes to adaptation. So really the equity ask over there is for historical emitters and just responsible countries and countries with more economic capability to lend more money for adaptation and loss and damage. similarly at this cop as well for the fund for responding to loss and damage which really you know is an example of the power of people demanding something from a multinational space that is equally driven. the applications for the first call for filling it for 250 million worth of grants to fill up the fund for loss and damage were made. So that's that's some kind of progress I guess given given the bleak times we live in. Let me bring in Alexander for the sake of time and Alexander look I mean if you look at a country like Jamaica for example the economic damages of recent climate disasters on the island was 40% of GDP which is quite quite a quite a substantial figure. So given the scale and the frequency of these disasters that we're seeing, what do you think donor countries, international financial institutions,, climate funds should prioritize right away and so that they can start to build some sort of resilience. Well again you you have to think both preventing which is adaptation and Benjamin for explained that there are some solution that are called naturebased solution that are very important to place like you know simply mangroves and protect the mangroves and so on and then you have also to think of reconstruction and that's the case for instance in Jamaica what is happening is that again the the the the international cooperation and and here we are talking about the region. There are some mechanism that are existing at the international level like the loss and damage funds and at the the regional level there is also a a fund called the catastrophic Caribbean risk initiative in order to help these countries to recover and it's mainly grants but it's extremely difficult for many countries for many developed countries to commit for large amounts and and we see that with time the impact 40p you imaging 40% of the GDP here for Jamaica and we see that more and more in in some other countries it can be even higher and it's extremely difficult to commit for for developed countries for grants at the international level. So really here it's it's important to keep working on bilateral or multilateral instruments to be able to recover. And in fact what I'm always saying is that you see also that very often the diaspora play a very important role hidden role in terms of transfer and that's something that's also welcomed. It's it's almost 90% of of the transfer are are coming from the diaspora. In another country where we have enough time to look at what happened a couple of years ago, 90% was coming from the diaspora in the United States and only 10% from the international community. So everything is is in place to be able to increase these volumes. it's it's just that these numbers are always getting high. It's it's really difficult to to follow the increasing cost of these events and that's very worrying. Okay, we'll have to leave it there. thank you so much for joining this discussion with us on inside story Alexand Rahaja and Benjamin Horton. Thanks so much. Thanks for watching. END OF TRANSCRIPT

[KE: Everything climate scientists predicted about global warming/ climate change since the 1970s is coming true, only faster] [But in the 70s, the wealth disparity was not this blatant.]