I literally came out of hibernation to do two posts today that I felt could not wait; I have more in my cue, but the snow is climbing up the window and I can't help but go back to sleep more now...
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Friday, December 26, 2025
+1.7 C by 2027 Analysis of James Hansen year-end prediction- READ & WATCH Paul Beckwith Dec 22 vlog w transcript at Heating Planet blog
[Blogger: I checked the NASA NY website where Hansen works for more info on this paper, but they have not put out a press release since Nov 2024. Here instead is analysis by Paul Beckwith, global climate science educator in Ottawa] "James Hansen posted a prediction for global average temperature to reach +1.7 C by 2027. I project we will likely pass 2 degrees C by 2032 or 2032. So much for Paris targets." WATCH & READ James Hansen Year-End Blog: Global Average Temperatures We Expect Over Next Couple Years, Dec 22 transcript+ below[beckwith]
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READ the Hansen team paper here: https://cityofangels25.blogspot.com/2025/12/17c-by-2027-hansen-dec-2025-w-graphs.html
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BECKWITH TRANSCRIPT:James Hansen has a new blog and a new article called "Global temperature in 2025, 2026, and 2027" https://jimehansen.substack.com/p/global-temperature-in-2025-2026-2027
So he talks about some of the predictions he made a couple years ago about today's global temperature and about the temperature surpassing 1.5 1.6 even 1.7 and he talks about what he thinks is going to happen over the next few years. Of course you have to look at the ENSO patterns.
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (.gov)
What is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a ...
https://www.climate.gov › news-features › blogs › what-...
ENSO is one of the most important climate phenomena on Earth
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We're in a La Nina situation right now. So you don't want to miss his post. So let me talk about it in this video. And I've got my Scottish cap on today. Last video I was Irish. So this is a Harris Tweed handwoven cloth outer heedes of Scotland 100% pure wool. It's one of my weaknesses is these caps. Of course you know about my Sherlock Holmes cap. I need a James Bond cap. I don't know what did James Bond He wasn't a big hat person. Okay, so first of all, James Hansen-
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you don't want to miss stuff from him. This is James Hansen, Columbia. And I just went to images and there's all these great images. I don't think this is him here but, you know, all these other mug shots. This is him a few years ago; this is him when he was he testified to Congress many years ago. Here he is 1988 testifying to Congress about the dangers of climate change.
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RECENT RELEVANT
Monday, December 15, 2025 James Hansen 1988 Senate testimony on greenhouse effect/ coming climate crisis- transcript here, more coming shortly on humanity's greatest screwup, letting global warming happen, Heating Planet blog- Dr. Hansen: Mr. Chairman and committee members- https://cityofangels25.blogspot.com/2025/12/hansen-1988-senate-testimony-greenhouse.html
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You know, you'll want to watch that speech if you haven't seen it before; so he loves this sort of hat. I do have a James Hansen hat. It's also like a Gilligan hat, I guess I call it. Anyway, this is his blog at Columbia University and these are his postings. Make sure you check them out if you haven't read them all. And this is the most recent one which I'm discussing here. Okay. So, what he does is he plots global surface temperature relative to the 1880 to 1920 base period. And that's what he uses. the it's Excuse me. 40-year bracketing 40-year period bracketing 1900.
What's the temperature done? So that's the baseline here between here and here is the average of this is the zero point here. The baseline and he shows temperature rise over time. So the blue line is a 12 month running mean surpassing the 1.5°C Paris target. Then he's got a 132 month running mean, 11-year running mean. Why it's not 10, I'm not sure, but anyway. That's the red line. And then the annual mean is the dots. Okay. And,, he's got a linear fit from 1970 to 2010, 0.18 degrees Celsius per decade. That's the green dashed line.
And what it's been doing since 2010 to present is it's running much much higher 31 degrees Celsius per decade. That's the red line. So where are we going to be in a couple years is the question. So global temperature in 2025 we declined 0.1 degrees Celsius from the peak from from it was it was spurred to the peak by an El Nino spurred the maxim in 2024. So 2025 is the second warmest year even though we're in a leninia. The 2023 to 2025 mean is plus 1.5 C relative to 1980 to 2020. So we we're we basically hit that 1.5° the 12 month running mean temperature should decline in the next few months reaching a minim of about 1.4. So he thinks see the 12 month the blue line is going to decline maybe to about 1.4 or so.
and then later you know as we go forward into 2026 it'll rise. Dynamical models show development of an El Nino. the El Nino is projected to come back in adding to the warming.
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So they project a global temperature record of 1.7° C in 2027 and that will further provide evidence that we're getting global warming acceleration. Okay. So global temperature of 1.47° 47° C in 2025 relative to the 1880 to 1920. It's the second highest in the period of instrental data about.1 degree cooler than the 2024 record high. Okay. So this they he he may he's connected mostly with the Godard Institute for Space Science Analysis at JS analysis. There's other there's about five different U data sets. He often shows them in his his blogs. the remainder of this month will be about 0.1 Celsius cooler than the same period in 2024. but this uncertainty in the exact December temperature it has very little effect on the overall 2025 temperature.
So he's pretty confident you know when he comes out with this blog 3-year temperature 2023 to 2025 is plus 1.5 relative to 1880 to 1920. Okay. and they're going to show he he's planning on more blogs in early 2026 showing the global geographical and temporal temperature changes expected. So this is important because what happened he goes back and he talks about previous predictions. Few people seldom do that. so two years ago they projected global warming in the then ongoing El Nino would rise much more than in prior El Nino going up to at least 1.6 and then only falling to 1.4. Okay. So this was their prediction was two years ago and so so he's copying a figure in the from the paper global warming acceleration hope versusi and so he shows the projections from two years ago with the data and it's basically spoton okay so so I expect that his predictions of what we're going to see in the next few years are also spot on we'll reach that 1.7 Celsius in 2027, you know, and some people say, well, we might even reach 2° by 2030; if there's still a further acceleration, that's very possible. If the rate of rise is still is the same as what it's been in the last few years, we might be 1.9 1.95. it might take you know till the early 2030s to reach that 2° C but that's exactly where we're heading. so some of the unusual warming is of course because of the long-term the long-term global cooling effect of aerosols has has recently shifted to warming because we've been reducing the number of aerosols not just over the land like over China and India with cleaning up of industry and less coal burning but also because of the Well, we're getting less aerosols over the over the oceans because of the reduction of shipping of sulfur in shipping fuels. , so this is, you know, Hansen's talked about this and I've had many videos about this in the past. So, , we expect a minimum 12-month running mean temperature of about 1.4 to be reached in the first half of 2026.
and then we're going to rise into 2027 reaching this 1.7.
I'm pretty confident in his predictions; he know he knows what he's talking about and also it depends on the El Nino status. So the tropical Pacific Ocean is currently in its cool La Nina phase and I'll show some data on that in a minute. Numerous models show it's going to shift into the El Nino phase in 2026. Okay. So, so he's plotting sea surface temperature anomaly degrees Celsius over time and you can see these you know the cutoff for El Nino is above 0.5° and this is Nino 3.4 four. I'll talk about that more. , so El Nino and if it's below minus.5 the anomaly then it's a leninia and you can see the lan ninas are are generally not as large in magnitude as the el ninos. Okay. So this is so the nino 3.4 Four index characterizes the El Nino southern oscillation or ENSO for short status.
This is the largest natural source of global temperature variability and warmer cold anomalies need to exceed.5° C for several consecutive months to qualify either as an El Nino or La Nina. rapid global warming of the past century is sort of making the background go up.
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So each successive El Nino reaches record and higher temperatures because of the background rise. The strongest El Nino relative to the surroundings was the 1997 to98 El Nino 2015 to 16 and 2023 strengths of the El Nino are exaggerated by the effect of the global warming on the Nino 3.4 four index and also the apparent strength of recent leninas has been diminished. So NOAA has you know ENSO projections they have a report which just came out recently on the projections for how ENSO is going to change over the next year; so there was a December 15th ENSO alert from just about a week or so ago concluding that La Nina is favored to continue for the next month or two and then it's going to transition to ENSO neutral in January March of 2026 with a 68% chance 2/3 chance; this is, you know, a short-term prediction. So it's more a statement of current conditions rather than a prediction.
So numerous models and evidence point towards an El Nino starting in the second half of 2026. So that will continue a lot of NOAA data, Nept data, models and so on. So then that will drive us to reach a record high temperature of 1.7. okay, so these are some of the latest forecasts for the Nino 3.4. Here we are. we're below minus.5. So it's the leninia condition and then we're going to pass through neutral and go up. Well, this is anything above 0.5 here is a an El Nino, you know, the warming phase. So this is going to, you know, we'll probably reach that, you know, from this spaghetti diagram. We're going to reach it some somewhere in the spring of 2026. We're going to go into an El Nino and we're going to start setting record high temperatures. Maybe not this year. not in 2026 but certainly in 2027.
Okay. So the assumption of at least a moderate El Nino beginning in 2026 leads us to the projection of figure five which is down here with okay so this is the projected peak you know this is 1.7° Celsius. So, this is what is it we projected to reach. Record high global average temperatures 1.7° above pre-industrial; and we're only going upwards.
You know, look at this this curve sloping upwards. So, we're definitely seeing acceleration. This is again the linear fit I discussed., 1970 to 2010.18 degrees Celsius per decade. And then we have the 2010 to present is this curve here. So we're trending, you know, and if you look at this, you know, what's happened in the last few years, it's even higher than than this trend 31. It's like it's like 04 degrees Celsius per decade. So you know, if you follow these projections, we're going to blow past two very very soon. I mean, if you follow this trend upwards here,, you know-
if I fit an eyeball line up here, I get something like passing two degrees Celsius, you know, by something like 2032, 2033, and then onwards and upwards. So, crazy stuff.
But 1.7 in 2027, this new record will occur only four years after the 2023 El Nino, right? So, it's crazy. Now, why play this prediction game? The purpose is to test and advance understanding.
And Hansen's got he's been working on a book for years called Sophie's Planet. Sophie is one of his grandkids. I really hope this holds this plays out. Expected completion in the spring of 2026. I've been waiting for a year for this book. I'm really it's it's going to be a must buy, must read multiple blogs on my YouTube channel on this.
He quotes Wally Broker, the late Wally Broker, famous climate scientist. The quality of Wally that I most admire that I admire most was his courage to speculate.
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courage to speculate
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Progress in science depends on people who have the knowledge and courage to attempt an interpretation of available data which are always incomplete and contain measurement flaws. This quality is the antithesis of scientific reticence.
We hear about caution and scientific reticence, you know, and I I always take I guess I'm like a Wall-E broker myself. Sometimes Wall-Ally's proposed interpretations are criticized as a house of cards and indeed they often come tumbling down but even in such cases he stimulated research and you know conversation. Other scientists criticized his proposal. Flaws were exposed. Improvements were made. This is how scientific progress is made rapidly. There's always outlier scientists who say something, stick their neck out, say stuff, you know, are often wrong but not but they stimulate a lot of discussion. The great scientist Richard Fineman, and I love his books, the Fineman lectures. I've read them multiple times. If you want to learn about physics in a nutshell, you can read the three volumes of Richard Feman's books. They're just awesome, very relevant even today. Anyway, Richard Feman, he famous famous famously ridiculed scientific reticence. Okay. And I think that's mentioned more also, you know, when he says we will discuss in due course. I think that's in his book. so, so here we have it.
And he also appeals for financial support in these times of divis divisive politics. We need more than ever to clarify the roles of hans in climate change and there's there's you know an article a miracle will occur is not sensible climate policy. So they've completed-
he talks about the main papers they he and his colleagues have completed in the last three years like global warming in the pipeline very classic paper global warming has accelerated and also so he's with sees Columbia University and there's links and so on so you know you really don't want to miss stuff from from Hansen
and I'll just show a couple other things
This is climate reanalyzer
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Climate Reanalyzer:
https://climatereanalyzer.org/
Climate Reanalyzer Daily Weather: on SST anomaly in Pacific, indicating La Nina state
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/toda...
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just to remind you. excellent site and if you click on today's weather maps which I've done here and then you just click on this image you can see the we're on sea surface temperature anomaly highlighted around the planet and you can see in the Pacific the cooling temp the cooler cooler the the cold temperature anomalies. This is indicative of the La Nina that is ongoing right now. and this is from I can update this to to today's data. Okay. and you can go and hover and you know over all these different things look at whatever you want. Great great website but this is the the ongoing La Nina. And then we have there's the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center monthly atmospheric and SST indexes and you can get all kinds of different you know data or graphics from different things QBO sea level pressure right all of these different data images and I just want and then this is the report that that the US the Noah the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration prepared part of the climate prediction center data from December 15th and so recent evolution current status and predictions. Okay, so they talk about this in great detail.
So the la nina is present right now. Sea surface temperatures, equatorial sea surface temperatures below average across the central and east central Pacific Ocean consistent with the leninia. That'll continue for the next month or two and then transition to ends neutral in January to March with an 80 68% chance. And these statements come out once a month the second Thursday of each month. every month. So, and then it gives these things called hav havar molar diagrams. So, this is so this is showing you know from beginning of this year to the end of this year to December and what it shows is longitude here. this is in the equatorial Pacific and you can see the temperature anomalies are low meaning in in these much of this region indicating a a leninia state and then you have these nino different regions. So this here's you define these regions at the equator up to plus or minus 5 degrees latitude. So we're talking about temperatures in these regions. So this is the Nino 3 point. This is a Nino 4 region.
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This is a Nino 3 region. The Nino 3.4 is an overlap of parts of region four and parts of region three. And these this region of the Pacific and then you got the Nino 1 and two over here. So this is the temperature anomalies the last weekly sea surface temperature departure minus.7 for 3.4 minus.8 8 for three 1 and 2 minus.3 Nino 4. So, so basically the Nino 3.4 is talked about most because the anomalies below minus.5 it is classified as a LNI right now and you can see the sea surface temperature anomalies in the different regions. , and in these diagrams show you more of the sea surface temperature anomalies also. And there's lots of information as you go down to the bottom of this file. lots of stuff about about ENSO patterns, outgoing longwave radiation anomalies. and the different temperatures in the in a in a chart as opposed to a ma a map official forecast probabilities. So this is the you know this is issued December 2025. We've got the Lan Nina dropping off. We've got the neutral state here with and probabilities and we looks like an El Nino, you know, is starting to come alive as we go into the new year. This is and this is he's got the model predictions and he showed one in the paper. This is what he showed. I think he cut and pasted this into his blog. atmospheric anomalies also in that region and then and then the effects on US precipitation and temperature. So departures from normal over the US that are related to the to the ENSO. So the this advisory is great. So Hansen is relying on that quite a bit in his most recent blog. Okay.
So you don't want to miss his blogs
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Climate Uncensored https://jimehansen.substack.com/ Periodically posting commentary on climate science and policy. By Dr. James E. Hansen
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like I say very very important stuff and yeah I want to thank you for listening. Please go to my website paulbeckwith.net and donate to PayPal to support my research and videos. I have a gofundme sort of a general gofundme to support my climate education initiatives. so please consider you know Christmas holiday season giving you know please support me so that I can continue to do you know to to repeat and do all the these these videos on on on climate education into into the new year. , and, yeah. Yeah. So, so I I'm on social media, all different aspects of social media. And,, you know, make sure you search for Paul Beckwith on social media because I I post quite a bit. , lately I've been posting quite a bit. , and there's loads of discussion on some of my videos, especially the polar vortex one on Reddit. , so I post to various subreddits on Reddit, including climate, , in,, collapse, and there's multiple other ones as well. Anyway, thank you for listening and,, happy holidays. Bye for now. All From Paul Beckwith https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZTBSixUj90
James Hansen coordinates:
Dr. James E. Hansen
Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions Program
Earth Institute
Columbia University
475 Riverside Drive (Room 520-C)
New York, NY 10115 USA
E-mail: jeh1@colbia.edu
Link: https://www.colbia.edu/~jeh1/
Global Temperature in 2025, 2026, 2027
18 December 2025
James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Dylan Morgan and Jasen Vest
Abstract. Global temperature in 2025 declined 0.1°C from its El Nino-spurred maxim
in 2024, making 2025 the second warmest year. The 2023-2025 mean is +1.5°C relative
to 1880-1920. The 12-month running-mean temperature should decline for the next few
months, reaching a minim about +1.4°C. Later in 2026, we expect the 12-month
running-mean temperature to begin to rise, as dynamical models show development of an
El Nino. We project a global temperature record of +1.7°C in 2027, which will provide
further confirmation of the recent global warming acceleration.
Link: https://www.colbia.edu/~jeh1/mailin...
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keblogger
Producing City of Angels Blog since Jan. 2007, first as coverage of the pedophile priest crisis in the Catholic Church as one of the survivors, then 30 other topics at CofA 1-30
+1.7°c by 2027: Hansen Dec 2025 w graphs "+1.4°c to be reached in first half of 2026, after which global temperature should begin a rise that will continue into 2027" Read the prediction, Heating Planet
Projection: global temperature reaches a minimum at or above +1.4°C [34.52 F above pre-industrial levels] assuming at least a moderate El Nino beginning in 2026. then in 2027 it rises to +1.7°C [35.06 F] a record global temperature. Fig. 5. James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Dylan Morgan and Jasen Vest 18 December 2025
Abstract. Global temperature in 2025 declined 0.1°C from its El Nino-spurred maximum in 2024, making 2025 the second warmest year. The 2023-2025 mean is +1.5°C relative to 1880-1920. The 12-month running-mean temperature should decline for the next few months, reaching a minimum about +1.4°C. Later in 2026, we expect the 12-month running-mean temperature to begin to rise, as dynamical models show development of an El Nino. We project a global temperature record of +1.7°C in 2027, which will provide further confirmation of the recent global warming acceleration.
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MORE +1.7 C by 2027 Pqul Beckwith analyzes James Hansen year-end prediction- Dec 18 Vlog w transcript at Heating Planet blog [Blogger: I checked the NASA NY website where Hansen works for more info on this paper, but they have not put out a press release since Nov 2024. Here instead is analysis by Paul Beckwith, global climate science educator in Ottawa] "
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Global temperature of +1.47°C in 2025 relative to 1880-1920 is the 2nd highest in the period of instrumental data, about 0.1°C cooler than the 2024 record high (Fig. 1) in the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) analysis.[1] (We assume the remainder of this month will be about 0.1°C cooler than the same period in 2024; this uncertainty in the exact December temperature has imperceptible effect on the 2025 temperature in Fig. 1). The 3-year (2023-2025) temperature is +1.5°C relative to 1880-1920. We will provide details on the geographical and temporal temperature change in a communication in early 2026.
Two years ago (29 March 2024) we projected[2] that global warming in the then-ongoing El Nino would rise much more than in prior El Ninos, raising global temperature to at least +1.6°C, and that temperature after the El Nino would fall only to +1.4°C (see Fig. 2). (Expectation of unusual warming was based on realization that a long-term global cooling effect of aerosols had recently shifted to warming, as we will discuss further in an upcoming post.) Consistent with this prior projection, we expect a minimum 12-month running-mean temperature of about +1.4°C to be reached in the first half of 2026, after which global temperature should begin a rise that will continue into 2027, reaching a new record high, as discussed below.
El Nino status. The tropical Pacific Ocean is presently in its cool La Nina phase, but there is evidence in numerous models that it will shift into the El Nino phase in 2026. Fig. 3 is the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly (relative to the base period 1991-2020) in the Nino3.4 region in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This Nino3.4 index characterizes the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) status, which is the largest natural source of global interannual temperature variability. Warm or cold anomalies need to exceed 0.5°C for several consecutive months to qualify as El Nino or La Nina. Beware that rapid global warming of the past half century is perturbing the quantitative significance of Nino3.4.[3] The strongest El Nino relative to its surroundings was the 1997-98 El Nino; the 2015-16 and 2023 El Nino strengths are exaggerated by the effect of global warming on the Nino3.4 index, which also diminishes apparent strength of recent La Ninas.
NOAA’s ENSO projections are very conservative, the 15 December ENSO Alert concluding “La Nina is favored to continue for the next month or two, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely in January-March 2026 (68% chance).” This is more a statement of current conditions, rather than a prediction. Numerous models and evidence point toward an El Nino beginning in the second half of 2026. For example, Fig. 4 is an ensemble of projections of the current NOAA NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) model.[4] We can use the well-founded expectation of this upcoming El Nino for a further test of global warming acceleration.
Why play this “prediction” game? The purpose is to test and advance understanding, as described in Sophie’s Planet (expected completion in the Spring of 2026) with reference to the late Wally Broecker “…the quality of Wally that I admire most was his courage to speculate. Progress in science depends on people who have the knowledge and the courage to attempt an interpretation of available data, which are always incomplete and contain measurement flaws. This quality is the antithesis of scientific reticence.[i] Sometimes Wally’s proposed interpretations were criticized as a “house of cards,” and, indeed, they often came tumbling down, but, even in such cases, he stimulated research. Other scientists criticized his proposal, flaws were exposed, and improvements were made – that is how scientific progress is made rapidly.”
Appeal for financial support. In these times of divisive politics, we need more than ever to clarify the role of humans in climate change. We are grateful for the support (as delineated in section 2.6 of our communication “A miracle will occur” is not sensible climate policy, which allowed us to complete our two main papers of the last three years (Global warming in the pipeline,[5] and Global warming has accelerated).[6]
Contributions are equally useful to CSAS at Columbia University or CSAS.inc; both are 501(C3) non-profits. CSAS at Columbia supports people with Columbia University appointments, while CSAS.inc supports all other costs without overhead (including work with our longtime attorney, Dan Galpern, which contributed to the International Court of Justice recognizing the need for it to address climate change and current efforts to prevent reversal of successful policies in the United States for addressing climate change).
Instructions for donations are at:
CSAS-Columbia University: https://csas.earth.columbia.edu/giving
CSAS.inc: https://www.climatescienceawarenesssolutions.org/donate
[i] The great scientist Richard Feynman famously ridiculed scientific reticence, as we will discuss in due course.
[1] Temperature is from Goddard Institute for Space Studies analysis described by Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M et al. Global surface temperature change, Rev Geophys 48, RG4004, 2010; Lenssen NJL, Schmidt G, Hendrickson M et al. A NASA GISTEMPv4 Observational Uncertainty Ensemble, J Geophys Res Atmos 129, e2023JD040179, 2024
[2] Hansen J, Sato M, Kharecha P. Global warming acceleration: hope versus hopium, 29 March 2024
[3] Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R. Global warming acceleration: El Nino measuring stick looks good, 14 December 2023
[4] NOAA National Center for Environmental Prediction forecasts are available and updated weekly. A new ensemble of climate model runs is made each week. Chart 24 in their Weekly ENSO Evolution, Status and Prediction shows the average of other global atmosphere-ocean models as “DYN AVG.”
[5] Hansen JE, Sato M, Simons L et al., “Global warming in the pipeline,” Oxford Open Clim. Chan. 3 (1), 2023
[6] Hansen JE, Kharecha P, Sato M et al. Global warming has accelerated: are the United Nations and the public well-informed? Environ.: Sci. Pol. Sustain. Devel. 67(1), 6–44, 2025
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Per Hansen: Thanks for reading Climate Uncensored! This post is public so feel free to share it. https://jimehansen.substack.com/p/global-temperature-in-2025-2026-2027
Producing City of Angels Blog since Jan. 2007, first as coverage of the pedophile priest crisis in the Catholic Church as one of the survivors, then 30 other topics at CofA 1-30
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