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Monday, October 27, 2025

5 nations sinking- Maldives Bangladesh Kiraibati Tuvalu & Marshall Islands- Climate migration beginning, like scientists predicted since 1970s

Watch w transcript 5 Countries Sinking Underwater: Climate Change’s Deadliest Warning, WION Podcast. The need to relocate populations came up in a post here at Heating Planet blog a few hours ago. Here's an elaboration on that issue by WION, a report today on residents of five nations already needing to move due to permanent global warming damage. Climate migration will likely become more critical soon- transcript follows TRANSCRIPT: 

Welcome to the WION podcast where we explore fascinating stories and ideas from various fields. In this episode, we uncover five nations slowly drowning beneath rising seas where homes, cultures, and entire countries fight a desperate battle for survival against climate change's relentless tide. 

First, we begin with Tuvalu. It is a small island nation in the Pacific Ocean with about 11,000 people. Rising sea levels threaten to cover it completely by 2050. The government has arranged for people to move to Australia with a special visa scheme. This is the first country to plan full evacuation because of climate change. 

Next comes the Maldives. It is made up of many small islands in the Indian Ocean. Experts say that by 2050 nearly 80% of the Maldives could be underwater due to rising seas. The government is working hard on climate actions but faces serious challenges. 

Then we turn to Kiraibati. It is losing land each year. Some islands disappeared underwater in past decades. Over half its population now lives on just one island causing overcrowding. Kiraibati has a program to help people adapt and ask for help to move citizens if needed. 

Following that are the Marshall Islands. They face frequent flooding from the sea. Rising water harms homes and freshwater supply. Leaders make climate change a key focus and look for ways to protect their population from being forced to move.

And finally, we reach Bangladesh. Its low coastal areas flood often due to rising rivers and seas. Nearly 20 million people live in the most vulnerable zones. Flooding threatens homes, farms, and safety. Efforts are in place to build better flood barriers and warn communities. Thanks for tuning into this incredible story,

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WION -The World is One News

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Post earlier today: https://cityofangels25.blogspot.com/2025/10/make-crashing-ecology-beautiful-5-min.html it's in the my2cents section

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[KE: Everything climate scientists predicted about global warming since the 1970s is coming true, only faster, we have known about the need to relocate populations if climate change continued for decades.]


Live streams Hurricane Melissa several POVs- watch at Heating Planet blog as storm nears Jamaica

Now w Max Velocity, blogger's favorite weather streamer, plus 4 other webcam views and streams in this post below

Update: This one is new and has audio, 2 views of Jamaica street streamingInquizeX

The one at bottom is webcam near beach, so you can hear the wind UPDATE but it is now recorded no longer live, replacing it now with another live stream. Heating Planet blog will add more livestreams as they come up between now and Tuesday. here are 3 so far ABC News CRUX

Tornado Paigeyy above you can hear the wind.

New one KFDM YouTube Now w Max Velocity '

Update: This one is new and has audio, 2 views of Jamaica street streamingInquizeX

The one at bottom is webcam near beach, so you can hear the wind UPDATE but it is now recorded no longer live, replacing it now with another live stream. Heating Planet blog will add more livestreams as they come up between now and Tuesday. here are 3 so far ABC News CRUX

Tornado Paigeyy above you can hear the wind.

New one KFDM YouTube Description KFDM/Fox4 Beaumont 

Make crashing ecology beautiful- 5-min film "World Passes First Climate Point of No Return" w transcript and "my2cents" -Heating Planet blogger

With stunning underwater footage and soothing music, this video describes the end of the world as we know it, basically, as it is happening, in a soothing way that makes one able to grok it. "Footage from Thailand and Kenya shows vast stretches of bleached coral, once thriving ecosystems, now ghostly white and lifeless." followed by soundtrack that dazes- WATCH: World Passes First Climate Point of No Return, Dawn News English Oct 27 video w transcript n my2cents below TRANSCRIPT [time codes after long periods of beautiful footage]

[Music] Scientists say the planet has crossed a dangerous threshold with coral reefs entering what could be an irreversible die off. 

00.30

Footage from Thailand and Kenya shows vast stretches of bleached coral, once thriving ecosystems, now ghostly white and lifeless. 

According to a new global tipping points report by 160 researchers, the world's reefs have reached a point of no return. marking the first clear sign of climate driven ecosystem collapse. 

The report also warns that glacia from the Alps to Greenland are melting faster than expected evidence of runaway warming already reshaping the planet. [Music] 

2,10

Arctic and Antarctic ice continues to thin, threatening to accelerate sea level rise and disrupt ocean currents vital for global weather stability. [Music] 

3.41

Low-lying island nations in the Pacific like Fiji and Tuvalu are already facing flooded homes and cemeteries as the seas steadily advance.

4.08

And in Brazil's Amazon, deforestation is pushing one of the world's largest rhine forests closer to collapse, a key climate system that scientists say could fail at just 1.5° C of warming. 

4.36

From Siberian permafrost craters to Europe's drying rivers, researchers say the planet's stability is weakening in ways not seen in human history. The authors are calling on leaders at next month's COP 30 summit in Brazil to drastically cut carbon emissions before more tipping points are crossed. 

5.0

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Dawn News English - your window into the latest developments, and analysis from across the world. Produced in Pakistan

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MY2CENTS:

KE: Yes, cut emissions. Good luck with that. To me a higher priority is moving threatened populations away from coastlines and finding new ways to build cities that don't rely on oil and gas, but the oil people won this one. You can't pry an American’s hands off of their steering wheels no matter what threat is coming right at them. And from where I sit, the whole world looks like LA. they aren't going to stop driving if that's the only way they have to survive.

Humans have to go back to square one and redesign the way we live on this planet. 

For now- We need to deal with the crisis we're facing today all over the planet, populations of humans need to be relocated. 

The only thing that's going to stop global warming after we’ve let it get this bad is volcanoes, and they could very well happen because our planet is smarter than we are and has lived and survived longer than the human race. 

I think.

Our planet will find a way to get back to balance, it could be in the  volcanic eruptions of methane that are coming out of the melting permafrost.

Meanwhile we humans have to deal with the problem at hand. 

SURVIVAL.

Populated areas are already getting wiped out and we need to relocate those people; build new settlements that are in harmony with nature not fighting her, and get humans all over the planet to stop hating immigrants because pretty soon we're all going to be immigrants thanks to what we’ve done to this planet. 

Earth will win out, humans are disposable.

The focus should be on SURVIVAL now.

Seek higher ground; but not too close to a melting glacier..

That’s my2cents, a 77 year old woman who after being a journalist for 50 plus years, knows a lot.

[KE: Everything climate scientists predicted about global warming since the 1970s is coming true, only faster. But in America we let propagandists with questionable agendas convince half the population that climate change isn't even happening, and now we're all having to deal with the consequences.]


Sunday, October 26, 2025

Melissa Just Became A MORE Dangerous Hurricane...

Max Velocity report

-ke

Melissa hurricane live stream Ryan hall y all channel, watch at Heating Planet blog now

LIVE | Storm Chasers Live, Hurricane Melissa Cat 4 Cat 5- Melissa Hurricane Live Ryan Hall Y All channel streaming now
Storm Chasers Live | Hurrican Melissa Cat 3 | Cat 5 | Melissa Hurricane Live Ryan Hall Y All Storm Chasers

Part 2- Glaciers melt and volcanoes awaken, hidden climate chain reaction, Video report 3 months ago w transcript, Heating Planet blog,

"The dangerous positive feedback loop scientists are concerned about." watch Glaciers Are Melting and Volcanoes Are Waking Up! The Hidden Climate Chain Reaction ANVESHAN : Knowledge is Key to Success channel Jul 8, 2025 report transcript below:
SUMMARY: Scientists at the Goldschmidt Conference warned that rapid glacier retreat, accelerated by climate change, could awaken dormant subglacial volcanoes, particularly in glaciated regions like Antarctica. The immense weight of glaciers suppresses volcanic activity, causing magma to accumulate. However, as ice melts, this pressure is released, leading to more frequent and explosive eruptions as the crust "rebounds" like a released rubber duck. While short-term eruptions might offer temporary cooling, the cumulative effect of multiple eruptions could contribute to long-term global warming, creating a feedback loop where melting ice triggers eruptions that, in turn, accelerate further melting." Welcome to our AI-powered Education Hub- a comprehensive learning platform.
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[Heating Planet blog started September 1 so I missed this ‘til now] 

TRANSCRIPT 

So imagine this for a moment. Think about the Earth's giant ice sheets. Huge, right? Not just frozen landscapes, but like these massive ancient lids holding back incredible power underneath. So what happens? 

What happens when those lids after millennia start to well melt away? Today we are taking a deep dive into a really surprising and yeah potentially kind of alarming connection. It's the one between our planet's melting glaciers and the awakening of its sleeping giants, its volcanoes. 

0.40

We've got recent scientific warnings, particularly from the Goldschmidt conference, and some really crucial insights from a recent article in Down to Earth or DTE that we'll be critically discussing. 

Our mission today to unpack the mechanics behind this, look at the global implications and understand why it matters especially for climate predictions and you know for anyone keeping up with current affairs environmental science and maybe particularly for those of you preparing for exams like the UPSC where understanding these kinds of complex earth system interactions is well pretty vital. 

It's fascinating really how these two things ice you know cold seemingly static. Yeah. And then the fiery heat of volcanoes, how they're actually proving to be intricately linked, right?

It feels completely counterintuitive at first. 

Totally. But the scientific evidence is mounting and it's becoming well quite urgent. 

Urgent is definitely the word. This isn't just theory anymore, is it? Scientists are actively warning about this. Researchers at that GoldSchmidt conference in Prague, they put out a stark message. They said as climate change speeds up glacier melt, hundreds of dormant subglacial volcanoes around the world could wake up. 

Yeah. Especially focusing on Antarctica. 

1.50

And they don't just mean a bit of smoke. They're talking more frequent and significantly more explosive eruptions. 

Exactly. And it's important to remember this isn't just one or two isolated volcanoes. Subglaciated volcanoes, the ones covered by ice now or in the past they exist globally. You've got them in Iceland obviously, which is kind of the classic example, but also places like British Columbia and Canada. And as you said, Antarctica, huge regions. 

[overlapping] And Antarctica isn't just another region. You mentioned it's the big by far. It's the largest glacial volcanic province on Earth. It's often overlooked just how vast it is. How vast are we talking? About 5,000 kilometers long. Yeah. Think uh Lisbon to Beijing roughly. That sort of scale. Wow. Yeah. Stretching from the South Sandwich Islands through the Antarctic Peninsula, Marie Birdland, even into East Antarctica. 

So the potential scale of activity there, it's just staggering to think about. It really is. But is this whole idea ice melt triggering eruptions? Is it completely new or have we known about this? That's a good point. It's not entirely new

2.55

The basic link, especially in Iceland, has actually been recognized since the 1970as. 

Ah, okay. So Iceland was the early case study. 

Precisely. Iceland's geology is unique glaciers sitting right on top of active volcanic systems. It's like a natural lab for this kind of thing. So the principle isn't brand new, but the let's say the global scale and the urgency that's definitely new, driven by the accelerating pace of climate change we're seeing now. 

Okay. So Iceland gave us the clue, but recent science has really dug into the how and the where else. Can you walk us through how researchers pinned down the actual mechanism beyond just seeing a correlation in Iceland? 

Absolutely. A really pivotal moment was a 2022 study was published in the Bulletin of Volcanology, a major journal in the field. This was led by Pablo Mareno Joerger at the University of Wisconsin Madison, working with Jamie Furkarson from Strawburg and others. 

And their research didn't just suggest a link. It suggested that melting glaciers specifically could lead to not just more eruptions, but more severe ones. 

3.52

More severe. Okay. And Marino Jerger himself said this isn't just Iceland anymore. Right. 

He was very clear on that. He said, "Yes, we see it in Iceland, but this is absolutely set to happen in Antarctica." And then he broadened it out, saying other continental regions need a closer look now, too. Places in North America, New Zealand, even parts of Russia. 

So, it really shifts the perspective. This is a global phenomenon we need to watch. 

Definitely, it demands a rethink of volcanic risk assessment in many parts of the world. 

So, how did they figure this out? What was the methodology in that 2022 study? 

4.25

Well, it was quite detailed. They look closely at six specific volcanoes. One key site was the Mo Cho Chuenko complex in Chile's southern volcanic zone. Why those ones? They're considered among the most hazardous in that region, even though they're dormant right now. So understanding their past is crucial for predicting future risk. 

And they didn't just look at eruption history, did they? I read something about crystals. 

Exactly. It was almost like geological detective work. They used dating techniques, of course, to get the eruption timelines. But the really clever part was analyzing tiny crystals embedded within the rocks thrown out by past eruptions like little time capsules. Precisely. 

These crystals basically record the conditions, the pressure, the temperature when the magma was forming deep underground. By studying them, the researchers could figure out how the sheer weight of the ice sheets affected the magma beneath. It's like reading a pressure gauge from thousands of years ago. 

That's incredible. So, what did these crystal diaries reveal about the mechanism? How does the ice cause an eruption? 

5.25

Okay, so picture the peak of the last ice age. We're talking maybe 20,000 years ago. You had these incredibly thick ice sheets, kilometers thick in places, pressing down on the Earth's crust. An immense weight, right? Like a giant lid. Exactly. This massive pressure did two things. First, it suppressed eruptions, kept things contained. Second, it allowed a large reservoir of silica rich magma. That's the sticky explosive kind to build up deep down maybe 10 to 15 kilometers below the surface just sitting there under pressure. 

Okay, so the ice holds it back. Then what happens when the ice melts? 

That's the key moment. As the ice age ended and the glaciers retreated, that huge weight was lifted relatively quickly. Geologically speaking, the lid comes off. The lid comes off. The Earth's crust, relieved of the pressure, starts to relax to rebound upward slowly. 

But crucially, this pressure drop allows the gases dissolved in that deep trapped magma to expand. Think opening a shaken soda bottle. Ah, the bubbles. Exactly. Those expanding gases dramatically increase the pressure within the magma chamber itself. And that's the trigger. That appears to be the trigger. 

This internal pressure buildup forces the magma upwards, leading to those explosive eruptions from the deep reservoir. These eruptions helped build the volcanoes we see. And Mareno Joerger put it quite clearly, didn't he? 

He did. He said, and I'm paraphrasing slightly, that glaciers tend to suppress eruption volume, but as they retreat due to climate change, volcanoes erupt more often and more explosively. And he stressed the conditions needed, you need that really thick initial ice cover over a magma chamber. The trigger is when that ice starts to retreat, releasing the pressure, which is happening right now. 

7.10

Which is happening right now, particularly in places like Antarctica. It paints a really vivid picture. It does. 

And wasn't there an analogy used to explain it? Something about a rubber duck. 

Yes. That was Jamie Farcarson, one of the co-authors. It's a great way to picture it. He said, "It's like holding a rubber duck underwater. The ice pressure is like your hand holding the duck down." Okay. When you let go, when the ice melts, the duck, the earth's crust bobs back up because the pressure is gone. And as the crust bobs up, it essentially allows the magma underneath, which is less dense than the surrounding rock, to rise more easily towards the surface. The path becomes easier. You could say- 

that rubber duck analogy really clicks. It simplifies these immense geological forces. But you mentioned earlier this isn't instantaneous. There's a time lag, right? 

A very important point. Yes. The researchers emphasize this is a slow process. We're not talking about volcanoes popping off the moment a glacier disappears. the crustal rebound, the magma movement, it takes centuries. Centuries. Okay, that's somewhat reassuring. It is. In a way, 

it means this isn't an immediate next week catastrophe scenario. It's a long-term geological shift. It's being accelerated by current climate change. And that time scale gives us time. Exactly. It gives us crucial time for more research, for setting up better monitoring, maybe even developing mitigation strategies down the line. 

Early warning is potentially still possible. That's vital information for planning, especially for disaster preparedness. 

Okay, so we have melting ice potentially triggering more explosive eruptions over centuries. Let's connect this back to the climate itself. How do these eruptions affect global temperature? It's not straightforward, is it? 

8.47

No, it's quite complex. In the short term, large volcanic eruptions can actually cool the planet temporarily. They blast huge amounts of aerosols, tiny particles, mainly sulfur dioxide, which turns into sulfate aerosols high into the stratosphere. These particles act like tiny mirrors, reflecting sunlight back into space before it reaches the surface. 

Ah, okay. Like a temporary sun shade. 

Pretty much the classic example is Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991. That eruption cooled the northern hemisphere by uh a bit over half a degree CC for more than a year. Quite significant. 

So, a short-term cooling effect sounds almost like a natural break on warming, but I suspect there's a but. There's a very big but. That cooling is temporary. And Mareno Jagger specifically warned about the cumulative effects. Meaning, if you have lots of eruptions, exactly over time, he explained the combined effect of multiple eruptions could actually contribute to long-term warming. 

How? I thought they cooled things down. 

9.50

Because alongside the cooling aerosols, volcanoes also release greenhouse gases, most importantly, carbon dioxide CO2. 

Right. The aerosols fade relatively quickly, but the CO2 lingers. Precisely. The CO2 builds up in the atmosphere over long term, contributing to the greenhouse effect and warming. So, melt glaciers, get eruptions, get short-term cooling, but long-term warming, which melts more glaciers. You got it. That's the dangerous positive feedback loop scientists are concerned about.

 Warming causes melting. Melting triggers eruptions. Eruptions cause more long-term warming, which causes more melting. 

It's a self-reinforcing cycle. Melting glaciers trigger eruptions, and those eruptions could over time feed back into the system and accelerate further warming and melting. 

Wow. That really highlights how interconnected everything is. Pull one thread. 

And you potentially start unraveling something much bigger and much slower that we're only just beginning to fully understand. It shows how our current actions can trigger these profound long-term geological responses. 

This deep dive has really opened up a whole layer of complexity beneath the surface, hasn't it? It shows the surprising powerful connection melting ice awakening volcanoes and these complex climate feedbacks that could follow. Understanding these long geological time scales, these deep earth processes, it's not just academic. It feels absolutely vital for our future planning, for understanding the full scope of climate change 

and for anyone, you know, trying to get a solid grasp on environmental science, maybe for exams like the UPSC or just to be informed, these connections are really key. So, it leaves us with a pretty big question to ponder, doesn't it? As we continue to change our climate, what other sleeping giants, what other slow motion geological shifts might we be unknowingly nudging awake? And maybe more importantly, how much time do we really have to understand them before their effects become truly profound? 

We really hope this discussion has given you some valuable insights into this really critical emerging topic, hopefully sparking some new questions for you. 

Until next time, keep questioning.

***
[Cut from opening: 
The important thing is not to stop questioning. Curiosity has its own reason for existence. That's Einstein. A pretty profound thought, isn't it? And uh yeah, it really sets the stage perfectly for our deep dive today.]

Part 1- Volcanoes will erupt due to melting of glaciers, scientists warn- Northeast India report 3 months ago, w transcript, Heating Planet blog

Melting glaciers due to climate change are not only raising sea levels but can also make volcanic eruptions more destructive around the world. According to a study, melting glaciers can cause volcanoes to erupt more frequently and more explosively, further aggravating climate change. WATCH Volcanoes will erupt due to melting of glaciers | Scientists warned, Northeast Live Jul 8, 2025, report- transcript follows  

[Northeast Live, Northeast India's only 24X7 satellite English news channel, catering to all the 8 states of the region.]

[Heating Planet blog started September 1 so I missed this ‘til now] 

TRANSCRIPT: 
Glaciers melting due to climate change are not only raising sea levels but can also make volcanic eruptions more destructive around the world according to a new study melting glaciers can cause volcanoes to erupt more frequently and more explosively. Which This research was presented today at the Goldsmith conference 2025 held in prom Glaciers melting due to climate change are not only raising sea levels but can also make volcanic eruptions more destructive around the world . According to a new study, melting glaciers can cause volcanoes to erupt more frequently and more explosively, which can make climate change more severe. This research was presented today at the Goldsmith conference 2025 held in Prague. 245 active volcanoes from all over the world exist under glaciers or within a radius of 5 km to them; these include areas like Antarctica Russia New Zealand and North America. Researchers studied six volcanoes of southern Chile and found that melting of glaciers can increase the activity of these volcanoes. The researcher said that glaciers suppressed the amount of explosives of volcanoes. But as glaciers are melting due to climate change our research shows that these volcanoes can erupt more frequently and more explosively. Researchers say that special attention should be paid to those areas where glaciers and volcanoes exist together; monitoring of volcanic activities and Antarctica Russia New Zealand and North America will have to be increased. Also, to prevent climate change is necessary to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases so that the melting of glaciers slows down and the risk of volcanic eruptions is reduced. Al although there is no active volcanoes under the glaciers in India, the rapid melting of Himalayan glaciers is a matter of concern for India. Incidents of floods and landslides are increasing in States like Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. If Global volcanic activities increase then India may also have to face air pollution, climate change, and economic loss.

Melissa 11-hr live stream reporting pre hurricane Oct 25 , watch rerun here at Heating Planet blog

From Jamaica rerun of live stream yesterday
CNN News 18 shown everywhere all at once Saturday

Saturday, October 25, 2025

And just last week there was a heatwave in Amsterdam. Oct 24 video at Heating Planet blog

It's like living in the First Act of a sci-fi movie in progress, when I watch this and the previous post about freezing in Whitby- we are all experiencing global warming and climate change in the 21st century, in early stages of critical mass right now. I feel like Dr. Roberta Neville, perched on my mountain, watching the catastrophe approach- Enjoy this video from Netherlands: Life at Anchor in a Heatwave in Amsterdam Sailing Backstage channel Oct 24

KE: Volcanoes erupting from melting Permafrost released methane could cool off everything soon- Earth will win out- Enjoy the moment- more posts to come soon at Heating Planet blog.

Storm Benjamin Simply Whitby TV footage, feel the freeze- foamy seas and stormy skies! Watch at Heating Planet blog

Previous posts here predicted extreme winters in North while rest of planet heats. Now watch: STORM BENJAMIN- FOAMY SEAS AND STORMY SKIES! Oct 25 reportFrom Simply Whitby TV 
"Simply Whitby! is a charming and popular YouTube channel dedicated to showcasing everyday life, food, and hidden delights in and around Whitby North Yorkshire."
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[KE: Everything climate scientists predicted about global warming since the 1970s is coming true, only faster, and a lot of things are happening that no one predicted- such as extreme arctic cold conditions while rest of planet heats.]

Abrupt climate change like 300k years ago could be coming now, data shows. Science class w Paul Mayewski w TRANSCRIPT, Heating Planet blog

Director of the Climate Change Institute and Distinguished Professor in the School of Earth and Climate Sciences, School of Marine Sciences, School of Policy and International Affairs, the Business School, and the Center for Ocean and Coastal Law (Law School) at the University of Maine- WATCH: Paul Mayewski - "Earth’s First Responder in a Warming World: Arctic Climate" post at Camden Conf channel Oct 23, transcript follows

[Here is previous post/ climate science class that covers similar material: Friday, October 17, 2025 Beckwith- How Lower Albedo Earth accelerates climate mayhem; watch science class w transcript at Heating Planet blog https://cityofangels25.blogspot.com/2025/10/beckwith.html]

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TODAY'S TRANSCRIPT
Paul Mayewski - "Earth’s First Responder in a Warming World: Arctic Climate" Transcript (not perfect but here, caps did not copy-paste)

0.00

Q: as director of the climate change institute at the university of maine professor paul maievsky is actively engaged in research and public education about the changes now underway in polar and high altitude regions around the globe.  With the enthusiasm of a born explorer let me tell you, he translates scientific findings into compelling explanations that have great appeal to wide audiences we're talking films books and beyond. 

This morning he'll explore what science is now telling us about the arctic climate which he regards as earth's first responder in a warming world welcome professor mayevsky

P: thank you david and thank you to the camden conference and the tech wizards and thank you to the audience for attending. it's my second opportunity to speak  close to president crimson and to follow his very wise perspective and my presentation i hope  will be not only supportive  but it will also help us to oops sorry here it will also  help us to understand a bit more about what science can actually offer.

1.13

My presentation touches on several points of consensus related to the science surprises related to the science gaps in knowledge related to arctic climate and then how mitigation and adaptation  should be at least in my opinion viewed in the context of future climate. obviously when we look at the polar regions, antarctica, a continent one and a half times the size of the united states on average 3,000  meters of ice is a very different situation from what we find in the arctic. the arctic is an ocean surrounded by land and the sea ice that covers the arctic ocean is one to only several meters thick. 

and if we take a look at the seasonal behavior of this remarkable event on earth we see tremendous change in the location of an extent of sea ice throughout the year this tremendous change in the whiteness of the planet is really the key to what we're talking about here. when the planet is or portions of the planet are white they reflect incoming radiation and when the sea ice in the case of the arctic  is removed it presents a dark ocean surface. that dark ocean surface absorbs radiation and as and even more importantly it also gives off heat that would otherwise be trapped it's called polar amplification 

that means that for one degree of warming you can have at least the net effect of two degrees centigrade of warming in the local area. 

2,52

of course all of this is largely dependent on what we've done to the planet in only very recent decades; co2 has increased by one and a half times, and perhaps even more importantly the rise in co2 is 100 times faster than anything that we've been able to measure in the  800,000 years of record that we have available from my scores, 

there are certainly plenty of reports that talk about climate change, that talk about the arctic, a focus just briefly on the ipcc i'll mention other things about them in a moment. 

under the united nations reports come out every two to five years the biggest reports every five years they represent 190 governments and the consensus report undauntingly is that greenhouse gas rise is the consequence of human activity.  within various ipcc reports there's tremendous depth in terms of what's happening to the arctic.

on an annual basis reports such as the arctic report card come out which give us up-to-date understanding of a variety of things changes in sea ice extent, impacts of warming.

4.10

The next three slides give you a very quick summary of what the impacts of warming are in various mediums. obviously there's been significant loss of annual ice, but also tremendous loss of multi-years ice, which is actually one of the pinning points that starts off  the freezing of sea ice acidification of the ocean changes in ocean thermal structure. and as ipcc always does, they basically give you the effect positive mix negative and the confidence and we can see that in general food provisioning fishing polar bears walrus crabs bowhead whales etc are all negatively impacted.0

and remember that the ocean is one of our largest food sources, one of our most important resources on the planet we are in fact a water planet  and we're beginning to see an absolutely new ocean appear.

impacts of warming for frozen ground are dramatic,  very intense. lake ice is appearing during the year for shorter and shorter periods so seasonal snow ice is changing in abundance, river discharge is increasing, obviously plants and animals are migrating and changing in their behavior as a consequence. 

and then of course tremendous amount of infrastructure damage.  the reddish parts of the diagram show you  the damages incurred on an annual basis in millions of us dollars under the high emission rates and then the blue under the medium emission rates roads buildings airports railroads pipelines all dramatically impacted

5.44

so what do we have in order to understand how the climate will behave in the future and this is clearly very important. we understand the clear and present danger of what's going on today the top clock shows you world the prediction ipcc prediction for world temperatures by 2100, 2  to 4 degrees centigrade rise depending primarily on  whether or not greenhouse gases  continue to rise,  whether they level off, you get that range.

we take a look at the arctic average and this is the critical thing to look at the average is about two times the world average 

however while the trajectory of these two  projections for future climate are absolutely sound we're going in this direction without a doubt towards warming we need significantly more temporal and spatial detail because obviously we don't live in a mean world or an average world we live in more localized areas so how well do the models do 

the models do a phenomenal job of giving us a basic understanding of the direction that we're going. but if we look at these two charts exactly the same time period, this is a time period that has already passed. The upper left is the instrumental record, notice the very red areas implying that the arctic is the fastest warming region on the planet and if you look in the lower right this is the climate model. it gives you the same basic trend, but it doesn't show you the anomalies on a regional basis this is critically important as we begin to plan for the future 

7.25

now again i'm not saying that these models are unimportant, they're consensus models they're critically important and they give us the trajectory but we need to know more between 2007 and 2012 compared to roughly the previous 20 years, the eastern arctic increased in temperature by 5 degrees centigrade on an annual basis that's the equivalent of doubling the length of the summer season which is quite remarkable; think about doubling the length of the season summer season in the place that you live right now. 

this is why there has been so much tremendous disruption to the people and the ecosystems.  

now to give you an even I think more shocking realization of what this means this five degree centigrade rise in that five year period is equivalent in magnitude and speed to the massive abrupt change in climate that occurred about eleven and a half thousand years ago at the transition between the last vestiges of the ice age and modern climate.

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[KE: There is that word again: “abrupt” climate change]

***

8.30

now that is to me a very sobering  phenomena and if in fact we take a look at where that increase in temperature for the eastern arctic which was five degrees centigrade remember between 2007 and 2012, it's a good four degrees centigrade higher than even the arctic average temperature so there's a lot to be learned from this regional detail could we have predicted this abrupt climate change? well in the early 1990s we discovered abrupt climate change we knew that it existed and we're looking for ways to in the past understand whether they're not to precursor. the fact that it happened in the modern era is because of this dramatic rise in co2 and the speed of this rise. 

if we looked at the sea ice record now with hind casting we in fact would have seen it coming and that's i think a very important thing for us to think about in the future. can we see these events sea ice extent change and many others and can we predict them for the future.

As president grimson mentioned, once you warm the arctic you change the thermal balance between the polar regions and the mid latitudes this changes the pattern of the jet stream. the jet stream divides cold air from warm air and it has hemispheric influences. it brings cold air into places much farther south warm air north it increases storms because the surface area connection  between cold and warm  increases, and of course it creates droughts floods fires as president grimson mentioned.

we have had since about 2015 an increase in frequency in the middle of winter the middle of darkness at the north pole  of temperatures because of the fact that the jet stream allowed warm air to get all the way into the north pole. and the net result was the warmth the north pole has been on occasion in mid-winter above freezing.

this is today's temperature situation absolutely today

10.38  

the northern regions to the north of greenland are 20 degrees centigrade than the 1979 to 2000 norm and regions where we live right now where  where i'm speaking from are 18 degrees centigrade colder than that norm. this is created as a consequence of that tremendous irregular and unstable behavior of the jet stream caused by arctic warming. 

but there are other things that are going on that we need to think about making predictions for the future the amount of volcanic eruption 1991 ended up in a one to two year cooling; and if you take a look at the record for that period it actually was a negative four degrees centigrade cooling in the arctic. that would in a warming world have a tremendous impact on for example transportation shipping in the arctic granted a brief period. 

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[KE: There's my headline- Abrupt climate change like 300,000 years ago could be approaching now, the data shows. Science class with Paul Mayewski today at Heating Planet blog]

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11.20

if we take a look at the effect of melting glaciers in particular greenland which is the greatest contributor of any ice sheet as president brimson mentioned to  to sea level rise, we see that that fresh water in  addition to the salty water that makes its way  basically from west to east across the north atlantic that fresh water addition changes the density of that water; it lessens the likelihood that it sinks. the less it stinks, the less it draws warm air from north america up to europe- have the potential for other anomalies the potential in a warming world for  the northern scandinavian regions to be actually colder now than they would normally be in a warming world.

And then of course we have the elephant in the room permafrost melting and as permafrost melts it releases methane. methane is 30  to 50 times more effective in  in capturing heat than co2 is. and we look at this projection for the time period 2090 to 2100 from the ipcc model, when the arctic is expected to be plus five to plus six degrees centigrade warmer than it is right now, this could happen much earlier and it could happen abruptly and we would have another obviously major transition

so to summarize quickly, human activity is dramatically altering the physical and the chemical climate i say chemical  because not that the arctic is necessarily a very big emitter of toxic substances. but all of the ice in the arctic is a sponge for the toxic substances that have been  emitted throughout the northern hemisphere and the globe for that matter but particularly the northern hemisphere and as all of this ice melts it introduces toxic substances into the local water  into the ocean. 

and the indigenous people of the arctic who tend to eat marine mammals, these marine mammals are when they absorb toxic substances that stay in their systems and as a consequence indigenous people have increasing rates of cancer; because of the fact that melting ice is introducing chemicals at the same time of course there'll be vector-borne diseases migrating farther north and all the things that we know go along with warming. 

13.58

the arctic climate is extremely sensitive to even small changes in climate. we just got an example of that from 2007 to 2012. we also have in the past the norse colonies which existed in greenland from  1000 to about 1400 and disappeared within a matter of just a few years; because the shipping routes that resupplied them from europe  stopped as a consequence of cooling barely one degree centigrade that allowed sea ice to be more extensive and trap those colonies. 

arctic climate change has far reaching effects president crimson says this i hope that you believe the examples that i've shown you and the bottom line is that a warming world leads to an unstable climate and climate instability is even more so pushed as a consequence of very sensitive changes in the arctic 

climate change can operate faster than a political cycle; abrupt climate change tells us this. that's quite remarkable when you think about it. political cycles are on the order of two to five  years abrupt climate change dramatic changes in climate can operate that fast 

so if we want to for now and in the future have the most responsive mitigation and adaptation strategies we need to think about these multiple scenarios for the future of climate and environmental change in the arctic and for that matter all over the world. we need to think about occasional cool periods we need to think about the elephant in the room. thank you 



all right so for this question and answer session again i need your questions… 


16.10

it gets at the paradox of the arctic where there's economic opportunity shipping lanes and resources and the fact that that also makes what you've just been talking about professor worse, because increased economic activity if it is not clean activity gives us more climate gases. the question is how do we reconcile the open you know as the ice melts new shipping lanes versus that itself creates more of a problem?


16.40

It's an excellent question and of course whenever  in this case a new ocean opens up and new land masses open up, there are  there's the the fight for for more resources i think that's the the significance of the arctic circle of the camden conference  of including science in all of these discussions. clearly there will be resource depletion in the coming decades in the arctic but it's extremely critical for us to understand what we've done already to understand the value of renewable energy and how in a world in particular in north america  where we have an infrastructure that in fact is quite old- it was phenomenal in the 50s to the 80s. 

but now when we have to think about how we're going to rebuild our infrastructure, we need to think about more renewable energy. so one can hope that we will continue to make good policies that we will continue to be smart about what we do and that we begin to think much more about renewable energy than extraction.

there are certain things that obviously  will still be extracted but we need good policies to make sure we do it in smart ways. we all want these things it's not going to stop our desire for them but we need to be smarter than we've been in the past. 

Q: by the way i failed to give credit where it was due that last question was from tillman crane of camden maine thank you very much for that there are some similar questions as well professor, professor  president grimson, just do you want to follow up on that- we touched on that when you talked about hey  we're gonna we're not going to close down production of lng gasses from from the arctic before talking about how about coal in west virginia and so forth. but what about this idea that the arctic itself could produce more of the problem that's destroying the ice? 

C: well i don't think the arctic is contributing to the problem so far, you can't really argue that from any point of view whether a scientific point of view or a business point of view. but just to give you a concrete example, the big oil company of france total decided to withdraw from all explorations in the arctic. so as we have to concentrate on what's happening here now, the problem is not in the arctic the problem is in the united states in china in asia and europe and elsewhere and it's very important that we acknowledge that. 

18.30

in fact you can see in parts of the arctic a remarkable example of how renewable energy can indeed happen very quickly. i often draw the attention of people to this triangle in the north atlantic from greenland to iceland to the faroe islands to scotland and and and to norway. in the early years of my life all these countries were primarily fossil fuel countries imported oil and coal. they are now each of them in their own way a shining example of renewable energy transformation 

20.11

iceland has over  clean energy norway  close to that over  percent of the energy production electricity protection in greenland is also 60% from renewable energy. faro islands will within a few years be hundred percent renewable energy and scotland in fact has achieved the remarkable progress in wind energy for example in recent years. so whereas you had before almost entirely fossil fuel based economies in this northern part of the north atlantic arctic map in what i often call the mid the middle arctic, you now have a primary example of a renewable energy success and it's one of the reason why norway iceland are among the most prosperous countries in in the world. 


so you can also go into the arctic and get concrete examples of renewable energy transformation in a remarkable short time. so people who argue that it's not possible for the rest of the world to go towards renewable energy should make an arctic visit not to study oil drilling or anything of that so but the renewable transformation in in the arctic  


Q: a follow-up question  comes from turkey from turkey, and i'll start with professor mayevsky on this but it picks up on what president grimes was just talking about. next ten years if we're going to address this issue of decreasing climate gases is there anything professor mayewsky that leads you to think that we can really take a bite out of this problem over the next decade i mean bill gates microsoft fame just published a new book about breakthroughs we already have breakthroughs that we need but what's your sense of this; it's really almost a question professor about why you continue toiling in this space what would give you hope that we could make some progress? 

22.25

M: that's a very important question certainly president grimson has already partially answered that and i'll answer on on behalf of what i hope will happen in maine. maine has tremendous pension potential for offshore wind power- it will be a great employer for the people of maine it will be a great resource that's the equivalent of several nuclear power plants. and this sort of renewable energy is popping up all over the united states, in addition to the middle arctic  region  it's beginning to take over. 

it's a matter of course of how we give tax incentives for this renewable energy and how we create new jobs and the Biden administration has been very smart about making the point that there will be many new jobs created from renewable energy.

[Biden administration? I had no idea this video is a year out of date at least. ]

23.19 

C: well let me if i may add to that because in recent years clean energy solar wind geothermal have become so cost effective that they don't need any subsidies. they are in fact a much better business than the old fossil fuel  model. many people ask how is it that iceland has become  clean energy it was not because we were climate missionaries it was simply because it was good business for us to move away from oil and coal. one of the reasons why norway and iceland and scotland all these three countries hundred years ago were among the poorest in europe that's why you had so many immigrants in the united states from scotland from norway and from iceland because people fled the poverty that existed in this country.

now they are among the most afro in in the world so i think it's very important that people realize in the united states that if the us wants to be a winner in the business competition of the 21st century it is imperative that you move quickly quickly into renewable energy. 

look at china; ten years ago i had a long debate with my good friend al gore about china and climate and he was blaming china was a hopeless case now china is the global leader the global leader in solar energy wind energy electric cars geothermal urban heating and if the us doesn't get it act together china will corner the global market for the technologies in these areas.

25.08

so it is a strong business case business case for the united states to use the next few years and definitely this decade to make sure that the us is a global leader in the renewable energy transformation.

Q: thank you president crimson professor mayowski i mean you mentioned offshore and this gets to  a query that we have about almost you know we think about well the chinese do enough to fix their climate issue but what about ourselves? when you talk about offshore people don't like the fact that windmills can block the view and then we got an interesting related question  from the university of maine at farmington do you think that the transportation of green energy through ocean cables could be successful in the us but then he also mentions  power company in central maine central maine power company running to trouble rooting the the the power to and from  quebec. in other words we don't want the infrastructure of distributing green energy in our backyards either. this may require some quick rethinking on the part of how we regard our own neighborhoods. 

26.30

M: certainly in the case of offshore wind for maine it's actually quite offshore and i believe that there is a hold on having it very close right now that the governor has put into action.  and clearly the stakeholders in particular fishermen mariners  need to be brought in to the equation. i also believe that in terms of potential ecosystem disruption  if a tiny tiny percentage of the funds that are dedicated to building this offshore infrastructure are also dedicated to thinking about where it'll go how it will impact the ecosystem it's a smart way for us to proceed. 

getting this power  onshore in the case of offshore wind is the very same thing that of course norway  has managed or is in the process of doing for  for the uk and europe  it's doable it's being done it's been done many times  there's some sensitivity.  but at the same time it's important to realize that our oceans are changing and  for example lobster fishing may very well change dramatically; the lobster men need new jobs. if this happens, they're extremely experienced in the marine environment and new positions will open up this is all- 

we're talking about a transition over the next several years over the next couple of decades  and if we're smart and for and and consider how to work this out in an equitable way it certainly points the path and just to follow up, in president grimsen's comment about not needing subsidies it's true. i i agree however to make the transition from our current infrastructure in the united states so the next one requires a change in policy and and maybe even some additional stimulus at the same time 

Q: all right professor mayevsky president crimson thank you so much for this discussion.

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