Bold claim: The climate crisis is amplifying monsoon mega floods in Asia, turning normal downpours into deadly deluges. But here's where it gets controversial. Some people still debate how much human-caused warming drives these specific events. This rewrite preserves the core facts and context while presenting them in a fresh, beginner-friendly way.
Not normal, but alarmingly intensified.
Scientists report that the climate crisis has intensified the monsoon floods that killed more than 1,750 people across Asia [past weeks]. Monsoon rains routinely bring flooding, but researchers are clear. The recent events were not typical.
In Sri Lanka, floods reached as high as the second floor in some places. While in Sumatra, Indonesia, deforestation worsened flooding by removing vegetation that previously slowed rainwater runoff. Similar floods struck Peninsula Malaysia in late November, affecting millions of people and ranking among the deadliest weather disasters in recent memory.
A study by World Weather Attribution, a network of climate scientists, found that 5-day heavy rain episodes in the region around Cyclone Senar intensified by 28% to 160% due to human-caused global warming. In Sri Lanka, heavy rainfall events are now 9% to 50% more intense than in the past.
Despite the tragic death toll, at least 1,750, and with hundreds still missing, the floods also leave long-asting health and social consequences. Recent research links posttorm increases in deaths from conditions like diabetes and kidney disease to these extreme events. Countless people lost homes and livelihoods with the poorest communities suffering most.
The combination of heavy monsoon rains and climate change is a deadly mix, said Dr. Sarah Q of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, who led the study. Monsoon rains are a normal feature of this region, but the growing intensity of these storms is not. Laith Rajapakes of the University of Marraua who contributed to the research described Ditwa and related storms as an alarming new reality for Sri Lanka and neighboring regions.
Unprecedented rainfall, widespread loss of life and massive disruption to economies.
Locally, flood levels usually rise predictably during monsoon season, generally up to about 1 to 2 ft. This year, however, some areas saw floods soaring to 14 to 15 ft, turning even areas that might otherwise shelter people into danger zones.
Scientists agree that the climate crisis driven by fossil fuel burning is making rainfall heavier and more intense in many parts of the world. Warmer air can hold more moisture, which translates into heavier rain when conditions are right.
To reach their conclusions, researchers analyzed weather records and compared heavy rain periods against the backdrop of a 1.3° C warmer world. They found clear increases in rainfall intensity. Although the exact percentage varies because different meteorological data sets were used, climate models help estimate how much global heating raises the likelihood of extreme events. But in this case, the models didn't reproduce the events perfectly due to natural variability in ocean conditions like Lanina and the Indian Ocean dipole.
Still, the combination of observational data and elevated ocean temperatures led scientists to conclude that global warming intensified the downpours associated with these cyclones. Dr. Miam Zachariah of Imperial College London noted that climate change can align with natural variability to produce exceptionally heavy rainfall.
While natural cycles exist, she emphasized that reducing fossil fuel dependence is within humanity's control and essential for reducing future extreme events.
Maya Walberg of the Red Cross Red Climate Center highlighted how the most vulnerable communities bear the brunt. She pointed to two worsening factors. Rapid urbanization into towns and cities and rampant deforestation. Growth often occurs in floodprone areas like low-lying plains, deltas, and river corridors. economic hubs that also serve as flood pathways. Loss of forests and wetlands reduces the landscape's capacity to absorb rainfall, increasing flood peaks and carrying debris into settlements, especially in Sumatra.
Initial damage estimates for Sri Lanka ranged from 6 to 7 billion, equating to about 3 to 5% of national GDP. This figure underscores the scale of climate-driven extremes that countries in the region must prepare for in the future. In some the events illustrate how climate change and natural variability can combine to produce extraordinarily heavy rainfall. While natural fluctuations will always occur, cutting fossil fuel use remains a practical and necessary step toward easing the severity of future floods. END OF TRANSCRIPT
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